Happy New Year to ALL - wishing all your dreams come true

Life and the Environemnt

The mechanical notion of the environment appeared with Newton as intermediary between two bodies in his principle of action and reaction. This is how he explained the transition from the notion of fluid medium to its designation as environment. The Hippocratic treatise, Of the air, water, and places can be seen as the first work to give a philosophical form to the concept of environment.

The environment dominates and controls the evolution of living beings through the intermediary of need, a subjective notion entailing reference to a positive pole of vital values. Changes in the circumstances entail changes in needs, and changes in needs entail changes in actions. Life and the environment which is unaware of it are two series of asynchronous events.

Things begin with the change of circumstances, but it is the living being itself which, at bottom, has the initiative in the effort it makes not to be rejected by its environment. Adaptation and struggle are life efforts to survive in an indifferent environment. Being the effect of an effort, adaptation is not therefore a harmony, it is not providential; it is achieved and never guaranteed.

Watson assigned psychology the program of the analytical investigation of the conditions of the living being’s adaptation to the environment through the experimental production of relations between stimulation and response (the stimulus-response couple).

He concluded that consciousness is illusory as of no use. The environment power dominates and even abolishes that of heredity and genetic constitution. Given the environment, the organism only makes of itself what in reality it receives. The living being’s situation, its being in the world, is a condition, or more exactly, a conditioning.

The theory of the environment was percieved as statue. In the rose’s perfume, the statue is the rose’s perfume. Likewise, the living being in the physical milieu is light and heat; it is carbon and oxygen, calcium and gravity.

We must ask ourselves: where is the living being? We can see individuals, but these are objects; we see actions, but these are movements; we see centers, but these are environments (environnements); we see machinists, but these are machines. The environment of behavior coincides with the geographical environment, and the geographical environment with the physical environment.

this methodological norm first found its limits and the occasion of its reversal in geography. Geography has to deal with complexes of elements with reciprocally limiting actions in which effects of causes become causes in turn, modifying the causes which gave birth to them. The trade winds give us a typical example of a complex. Trade winds move the surface sea water heated through contact with the air; the deep cold water rises to the surface and cools the atmosphere; the low temperatures engender low pressures, which give rise to the winds; the cycle is complete and begins again.

Plant species finally form their own environment with exchanges between plants and the atmosphere. The same views should be applied to the animal and man. However, the human reaction to the challenge of the environment happens to be diversified, because of man's possibilities and needs and what he represents to himself as desirable which is not separate from the sets of values.

source: www.eci.ox.ac.uk

My Piece of England

Radcliffe in Oxford

My piece of England, Oxford the city of dreaming spires. The place of Jesus College built in 1571, the splendid Tower of the Five Orders, a niche for the statue of James I, the reigning monarch when the quadrangle was built. On spaciousness of fine gardens of Trinity College, and the towers of All Souls of pure Renaissance interior; the wide flat ceiling of Sheldonian Theatre where it is painted with a depiction of the Triumph of Religion, Arts and Science over Envy, Hate and Malice.



I mourn to thee and say—'Ah! loveliest friend!
That this the meed of all my toils might be,
To have a home, an English home, ….
The peacefull'st cot, the moon shall shine upon,

Samuel Taylor Coleridge





Learning program:
http://www.ouls.ox.ac.uk/staff/staff_dev/programme

Oxfam’s Global learning programme report

Executive summary and introduction

A Programme Learning Report has been commissioned to support learning and accountability both within and outside Oxfam. It forms part of Oxfam’s reporting process for 2006, and also contributes to Oxfam Great Britain’s current review of its monitoring and impact assessment processes, which is being undertaken to meet demands for greater accountability and learning, and to explore improved ways of assessing programme impact.

Sixty-one documents were reviewed in the production of the Programme Learning Report. These included 33 programme evaluations and eight strategic reviews. Three inter-agency evaluation reports on the Asian tsunami response were included in the sample in order to provide information about current lessons in the humanitarian sector.

A number of programme teams are investing in improving various areas of analysis, such as the teams engaged in the ‘Vulnerable Livelihoods’ initiative and teams in the MEEECIS Region and the Philippines, who are strengthening their analysis for influencing policies, practices, ideas and beliefs. Oxfam can learn from these and other examples.

A number of lessons for developing good relationships, that have fairly wide applicability, emerged from some of the reviews of programmes that involve working in alliance with others. These reviews suggested that good relationships are promoted by:
o factoring in time for agencies to understand each other
o being realistic about expectations, goals, and objectives
o clarifying ground rules and processes in a document (including budgets and exit strategies)
o discussing ways of dealing with conflict
o using a flexible management model and leadership style that suits the partnership type
o not relying on a small number of individuals
o being honest about levels of resources, commitment, and capacity

The long-term commitments that are necessary to work with partners towards changes in policies, practices, ideas and beliefs, as well as for strong, independent networks and coalitions to emerge, is recognised in reviews. Often partner agencies require support to develop capacities in the same areas as Oxfam staff. The reviews show the importance of clarity about the purpose of a partnership, a good assessment of capacities in order to select partners, and then support to strengthen or develop new competencies, whether planning for future humanitarian responses, or development and campaigning work.

The way that Oxfam works in partnership with others offers opportunities to ‘walk the talk’ of participation and equality – and to demonstrate its commitment to empowerment and accountability at all levels. Striving to live this out in all relationships requires a long-term commitment across the organisation.

Extracts: www.oxfam.org.uk

Power to Law

Performance Enhances by Constraints



Research studies about Human Resource Management seldom have approached comprehensively and fail to converge upon a set of criteria for evaluating HR management systems. Human resource management proliferate assumptions applied to other areas in management studies. Through strategic reading managing HRs is to consider innovation, development and foresight in maintaining, optimizing and delivering higher standard of living for human resources in organisations, and business systems that brings about efficiency and effective use of such strategic resource. Managing HRs has to be attentive and recognize impacts of both internal and external environment in which the organisation performs which is relevant to achieve intended objectives.

Initiatives to converge benefits for all stakeholders including the society within a regulated and rational framework facilitate implementation of management efforts. Pursuing responsive, responsible and solution finding environment for all involved creates enabling organisations or business entities in which the sense of belonging is highly valued and strengthened that is essential for sustainable organisational development. Organisational development which justifies policies for project performance will add value to what already has been done as well as identifying where capacities need to be further developed. Environmental feedbacks are important for adjustments and accomplishing planned objectives. Strategic approach describe major phases involving human resource management by communicating feedbacks from environmental factors that provide inputs into the system to follow dynamic interactivities toward the processes namely throughputs in order to ultimately accomplish outputs that is constantly evaluated against intended results.

In a bigger picture economic, social and political organisations and their workforce are part of social system where their interests have to be fulfilled in order for the system to survive and develop. In an open system where these interests contradict, there are crucial points of intense activities for the management to focus on monitoring, evaluation and planning intervention. That is to say devising strategic, tactical and operational planning that brings interests’ of stakeholders closer and creating maximum benefits for society, individuals as well as organisations.

Some of the good practice that was mentioned in recent work on performance assessment is the need to align organisational incentives with learning, and adapt in the light of that learning. Further challenge is to build on individual competency which means developing and adapting management systems and processes so that they too evolve in the light of what we are learning about them. This requires an ability and skills to scrutinize and make sense of what is going on outside of the organisation and become more porous to the political, economic and social processes in which performance is immersed (Oxfam GB, 2005).

Significant social, intellectual, and technological changes are accruing with that the routines of professional life in business, and other domains that have been affected by the combination of new technologies and new management techniques. The internal cultures of organizations have been changing accordingly, usually in ways that make them more efficient and effective. These imply to growing need of organisations to engage in continuous learning to assemble higher capacity and motivate to compete for higher expertise. Lack of skilled human resources affects performance and productivity from many angles. Britain's business leaders have recognised the urgency of the task.

A recent survey by Lloyds TSB found that problems recruiting qualified staff were causing more boardroom headaches than either the threat of terror attacks or bird flu. And 48% of Britain's largest 2,000 companies said they were experiencing difficulties recruiting qualified workers (BBC, 2006). Leitch was alarming to report that the average French worker has become 20% more productive per hour than their British counterpart. In Germany they are 13% ahead. According to the Sector Skills Development Agency the UK is currently about the fourth or fifth largest economy in the world but in terms of human capital we languish in 17th place.

Capacity building and skill enhancement will help to perform sound management including the accountability of institutions to those they serve. The ability of institutions to help or harm people revolves around the quality of institutional interactions with people at all levels. Building capacity will enable people to make their interests known and taken into account. By increasing their voice and expressing their preferences more vividly they ensure that institutions truly respond to their needs. They will then have the means to provide feedback to institutions to enhance productivity. Regular, reliable and informative feedbacks are necessary tools for managers to perform as decision makers and pursue subsequent adjustments. These decisions are not made in vacuum emanated from dissatisfy minds of managers constraint by various interference. One study showed that when the rational choices of actors are constrained by a variety of normative and institutional constraints economic performance in societies is enhanced.

Institutional constraints on decision making defined as rational choices have dynamic effects on the balance of power among social forces. These constraints reflected in the rational behind formation of social entities. Lack of resources and feedbacks weaken accountability, legitimacy and learning as well as capability to bring about effective changes in system being private or public.

Although rules and regulations are components of organisational environment but mutual interaction between economy and law as well as power overlapping will reign. Social actors challenging big businesses have increasingly endorsed constraint that works to regulate shortcomings. By joining the forces to regulate norms and rules they ultimately become partners of the governing body. Their expertise and ways of communication to their adherents are mechanism of sustaining rules and regulations.

But most powerful businesses today are owned by shareholders pressing for voice as part of such economic network where actual founder sometimes as executive manager not controlling a majority of votes in the board. People in their role as investors challenge the agenda for best interests of the organisation with emphasis on ethical values on environment or other altruistic ideas. They have changed management objectives to the best interest of society and environment by endorsing restrictive rules and regulations and ultimately attacking the reputation of big businesses to adopt progressive social policies. As a result social actors and activist shareholders are now being taken seriously in many board rooms, and increasing numbers of corporations are taking their agenda into account in making business decisions.

An overwhelming 91% of those interviewed in annual Mori Poll in 2005 suggest that public policy and governments should encourage businesses to take their responsibilities more seriously, and to work to improve the social impacts of their products and services and stated that this will affect their choice of which products or service to buy. Campaign initiatives alike have turned to a comprehensive political, regulatory, legal and economic assault on corporate reputations and business practices that instigate a great deal of pressure on management through naming and shaming, filing legal action or boycotting products and ultimately enforcing desired constraints.

Having said that it emerges that the more we assume and elaborate on power of people, the more we elevate and extend the power of regulators and rule makers. It functions as positive feedback in escalating constraint orders in democratic contexts. Those engaged in the government way of life and those who are driven by ethical principles are keen on control and regulation. They believe they know best. The complexity of social machinery in democratic environments has functioned in a way to devolve more power to rules and regulations in every corner. These democratic practices are extending further. Ever more power lies in law. Engineered governance will exercise increasing power in future over private entities. At present more political and social actors in advance economies advocate for rule–resource institutional framework rather than liberation.

This translates to the fact that processes of legal action and institutions reciprocally shape and are shaped by economic action. Because rules and legality are socially constructed, it likewise affects the economy through a multi-dimensional set of social mechanisms, rather than by calculations of benefits only. Similarly, law helps constitute not just economic interests, strategies and power, but also everyday economic meanings, identities, roles, relationships and structures, and norms, values, ideas and ideals, including the concept of economic rationality itself.




Refernces:

Robin Stryker , 2006, Mind the gap: law, institutional analysis and socioeconomics, Oxford Univ Press

Erik Olin Wright, 2006, Beneficial constraints: beneficial for whom? , Oxford Univ Press

Murray Armstrong, Survey shows nine out of 10 want ethical feedback, Guardian, 28 Nov, 2005

Oxfam programme framework and strategic programme management, 2003

http://www.oxfam.org.uk/what_we_do/issues/evaluation/

(www. dfid.gov.uk) and R4D – DFID’s research portal
(www.research4development.info)

J. A. Allan, Oxford Center for Water Research, 2006
www.ocwr.ox.ac.uk

The new wave of restriction....

Kourosh Mohtashami (my son)Email Account was cut off - from 7:00 AM Oxford.



British Embassy, British Council, BBCWorld, Daily Mail are restricted area in the web, ACCESS DENIED






And help for thee there is none sure,
But still in pain thou must endure.

The more my plaints I do resound
The more my voice is bound

Breathing is restricted...
only life in prison and in torture ...



TO OXFORD, I WISH TO RETURN

Democratic Capital

The dynamic interaction between political and economic change concerns economic effects of democracy. Democracies influence economic performances, largely via investment decisions, and hence through expectations for further stability. The prospect of future democracy then becomes a crucial determinant of current economic performance. This means that, to correctly assess the economic consequences of democracy, we must look beyond the current regime, to expectations about its stability. When expectations of regime stability are taken into account, democracies — on average — grow faster than autocracies. The idea suggests rich dynamic interactions between economic and political change, including a positive feedback loop between democracy and economic development. As democracy consolidates and becomes more stable, income grows more rapidly. This feeds into more democratic stability, and yet more economic growth. At the same time, accumulation of democratic capital brings about yet more stability and further growth. Countries ruled by autocrats, instead, are more likely to stagnate because they do not have any chance of initiating this virtuous circle of consolidation and growth. If they happen to become democracies, they remain vulnerable and unstable until they have accumulated enough democratic capital. As instability hurts economic development, it feeds into itself.





Techno science, democracy and public life

Scientific knowledges and technological objects have become increasingly controversial in public life. Science, technology and politics appear to be ever more tightly intertwined in the everyday experience and social governance of processes as varied as bio-technologies, digital communications and intelligent environments. Yet, while 'citizenship', 'democracy', 'representation' and 'politics' are constantly invoked in this literature it is not always clear to what these terms refer, which traditions in political theory inform them, or where these traditions might need revision.

Among the issues that are foregrounded are questions concerning the possibilities for responsible collective political engagements among humans and nonhumans, including concerns raised by queer theorists regarding the limits of a politics of inclusion.

The idea of matter as inert makes a political difference: Inert matter, the other to life, will not be able to provoke attentive respect for nonhuman nature and it will impede the emergence of a more ecological way for humans to think, eat, and endure.

Politics should take experimental science as its model in the practice of representation. Once we understand that scientists, like politicians, are spokespersons, then we can see that they actually do a better job of communicating with their constituents.

Representative government both fosters and depends on a critical public sphere that should be understood as part of, rather than existing prior to, political representation. Because constituent interests and opinions are usually inchoate or in conflict, representation is not usefully understood as the "faithful translation" or "making present" of constituents.

Political representatives, not unlike scientists, engage in various practices of mediation. They elicit, educate, anticipate, and aggregate constituent perspectives and opinions in the process of representing them. Such practices of mediation, moreover, are themselves mediated by technological devices, material structures, scientific claims, and social institutions. Democratic societies are institutionally differentiated, and different kinds of institutions (e.g., legislatures, courts, bureaucracies, NGOs, laboratories, universities, etc.) represent humans and nonhumans in different ways.

Source:
http://www.ouce.ox.ac.uk/news/politics/info.php#jbennett

Assessing Performance Management

Assessing performance management systems in complex organisations, such as universities, which produce multiple goods and operate in a world of multiple stakeholders, complex funding flows and often contradictory demands is a difficult task. Study across six different higher education institutions (HEIs) England in 2005-6 developed distinction between two different PM namely transactional and relational. The TRANSACTIONAL has a high level of specification of ends to achieve (e.g. through performance measures and targets etc.) and means to achieve these ends. It is project based for a particular periodic activity. The RELATIONAL has a clear specification of ends to achieve (e.g. through mission and vision statements, key success factors etc.) but is less directional in relation to the means to achieve these ends. It is more organisationally based and is ongoing.

Effective leadership is said to be vital to the success of any organisation, so motivating good leadership practices should be a top priority. There is a wealth of economic literature relating the performance of private firms to the pay and leadership practices of CEOs, yet surprisingly, this has never been transposed onto the public sector. In England, the establishment of ‘City Academies’ and the lauding of ‘Super Heads’ for turning around failing schools has put increasing emphasis on leadership in education. Was Chris Woodhead, former chief of Ofsted, right to assert, “We don’t need report after report on the theory of turning around failing schools. It isn’t a matter of money; it’s leadership first and foremost”? a survey using open ended non leading questionnaire found an active head-teacher labour market where pay was sensitive to school performance, contrary to much recent debate on pay and performance premised on a view that teachers were not subject to wage incentives. The pilot survey suggested that performance tracking and evaluation at the school level was generally strong, but substantially weaker at teacher level

Both voice and choice are expected to improve PM in public services, choice forces public service providers to compete for ‘customers’ and voice enables service users to pressurize providers into action. But as choice provides people with exits, so dissatisfied people choose to exit rather than voice their dissatisfaction. An online panel survey of more than 4000 households found that social investment, or loyalty, lowers exit and increases voice. Similarly higher social class, Social investment/social capital also increases Voice activity.

One of the main things Voluntary Community Orgs are said to bring to public services is the capacity to deliver responsive, user-friendly as well as innovative public services. However A survey of three English local authorities (one urban, one rural, one suburban) found that the innovative capacity of VCOs is heavily conditioned by government funding rather than an intrinsic quality of VCOs, hence with increase of funding the innovation decreased.

The link between policies made at the centre and delivery of services on the ground is one of the perennial problems of public service management, and of central concern in an age of ‘delivery’. Failure to deliver policy on the ground has long been blamed on selective implementation by street-level bureaucrats with too much scope for discretion. Yet, many governments also advocate the detachment of delivery agencies from policy-makers and more local autonomy. To discover the mix of management mechanisms involved, 63 interviews was conducted with people at all stages of each of three different cases of delivery chains, from policy-makers in Whitehall to police officers ‘on the beat’. The study found when central targets were successfully delivered, local autonomy disappeared and street-level bureaucrats were exposed to command and control from the centre. While command appeared to be the most successful mechanism for ensuring short-term delivery, it seemed an unreliable way of achieving longterm delivery since it depended on an unsustainably high level of top-level political attention.


For all professionals providing public services, the way formal incentives interact with individual attitudes and professional norms to shape behaviour is central to policy and institutional design. The link between the quality of health care and incentive systems is much debated, and the 2004 General Medical Services Contract in the UK offers a key test of that connection. The contract linked 25% of practice income to performance on 147 publicly reported indicators that made up the Quality and Outcomes Framework. Most GP practices achieved over 90% of their QOF targets (pushing costs over the level budgeted for by approximately £1.5 billion in 2005*)

From 2001 to 2005, the UK Government introduced star ratings to evaluate the performance of NHS Trusts in England. Star ratings and the associated target system was subject of debate by health professionals while the relationship between performance on star rating type performance measures and hospital productivity remained unclear, and the need for a measure of output remains. Measuring output and thus productivity is difficult in the absence of the market prices used in the private sector to indicate the value of the services provided. One study found huge variation between Trusts’ productivity across and within star rating categories. The context in which trusts operated was important; trust productivity levels in 2003/04 correlated positively with social services expenditure on over 65s and negatively with the extent of patient deprivation.

Many PMs have been criticized for undermining the overall quality of service in pursuit of narrow targets, while private firms have increasingly adopted a ‘balanced scorecard’ approach, involving a range of measures that include finance, business processes, customers and innovation. But we have limited knowledge of how public service organisations develop and use PMs in practice, or of how far the public sector can learn from private sector PM systems. A qualitative study of four organizations across England found that there were sharp differences between the local government and university case studies, with a more pervasive PM culture observable in local government. There were also common features, notably a disjunction between PM reporting cycles, budget and strategic planning. Where there was a prevalent PM culture, such as in local government, dysfunctions of PMs for service outcomes were also prevalent reflecting a lack of useful outcome measures for management to focus on.

A proliferation in ranking the performance of public sector organisations, particularly in England, has led to an explosion of local government, school and health service league tables, as well as international league tables. One survey found changes in aggregation methods (either altering weightings or decision rules) could have a substantial impact on results, with individual hospitals jumping from a 0-star rating to a 3-star rating dependent on small alterations in the aggregation rules. Methods used indicate how uncertainty shrinks if we take account of random variation on performance indicators.

In recent years, many of ‘objective’ measures suggest that local government in
England has been improving. Yet public satisfaction arguably has been declining. Are citizens simply impossible to satisfy, or is something more complex at work? An on line survey of over 4000 households in two occasions used on statistical model of the relation between performance and satisfaction found that expectations of change in performance are evidently important, with expected future improvement increasing current satisfaction. Satisfaction was affected by frequency of use; heavy users of public services were more likely to be satisfied, but contrary to prevailing thought, age and income were not influential.

Environemtal Constraint on Performance Management

Public sectors come under increasing fiscal pressure to cut or control their spending levels, given that it represents between 35 and 50 per cent (in the case of the UK 38.5 per cent) of GDP which brings the need for policy makers to be able to evaluate their performances. The assumption of assessment regimes regards those overseen to be ultimately responsible for the performance on which they are measured: their policy priorities, capacities and capabilities (or lack thereof) influence the quality of the services they provide suggesting they should be sanctioned (or rewarded) accordingly. An explosion of oversight however resulted in hybrid rather than ‘pure’ mechanisms of oversight. The responsibilities and resources allocated to overseers have undoubtedly grown. In the case of the UK, for example, formal arms-length overseers doubled in size and real term resources during the 1980s and 1990s, at a time when UK civil service was cut by more than 30 per cent and local government by about 20 per cent (Hood et al. 1999).

An advance evaluation approach highlighted external conditions that constrain performance for public services to deliver and are not easily influenced by their policy decisions. Deprivation may affect authority performance in many ways. Some service functions may be put under particular strain if large sections of the population suffer from low income, unemployment, poor health, or low educational attainment levels and deficits in tax collection. The study found that performance assessment is flawed if it fails to take account of circumstances beyond the control of local policy makers. Performance may be wrongly criticised for the performance effects of difficult local conditions.

Local authorities are tied both to the economy as a whole and to factors that are specific to their local circumstances. Variables that controlled for external influences include political, economic, social and environmental divergence with regard to population-weighted average deprivation scores aiming to reveal the actual extent of the variation in deprivation which produces a more accurate analysis. The study that examined demographic characteristics, seven deprivation domains, political control, type of authority, and discretionary expenditure by local authorities concluded that when one and the same performance indicator (e.g., school examination results) is used to measure both deprivation and council performance, deeply perverse outcomes are possible. While sceptics believe that, because of Goodhart’s Law (‘When a measure becomes a target it ceases to be a valid measure’), the enterprise is doomed from the start.

* As reported by the Technical Steering Committee in the British Medical Journal, March 2006


Source:
The Public Services Programme, Oxford University
Public-service.ox.ac.uk

Prof Iain McLean, Dr Dirk Haubrich, Dr Roxana Gutiérrez-Romero, (2006) The limits of performance assessments of public bodies: the case of deprivation as an environmental constraint on English local government, Department of Social Policy and Social Work and Department of Politics and International Relations University of Oxford


Governance Accountability to Economic Voters

An empirical study based on 163 national surveys conducted in 19 countries over a 22 year period (1979-2001) found that open economies with an expansive state sector at one extreme and relatively closed economy with a limited state sector at the other are persistent models in democratic countries. The analysis suggest that global economic influences are contributing to the scope of the governments in unprecedented scale consequently raising question over democratic accountability for growing interference of the government in the economy. Does participation in the global economy represent a constraint on national government policy makers? One argument regards democratic accountability to be weakened due to lack of control over economy which result in convergence of economic policies and outcomes (Cerny 1995; Rodrik 1997).

But others (Garrett 1998, Hall and Soskice 2001; Steinmo 2002) contend that national governments flexibility and autonomy in designing and implementing policies are invulnerable to global forces. They conclude that national economic policy outcomes can be quite distinct from one another. These arguments on governance and globalization have important impacts on individual level, for constraints on decision makers associated with open-economies - more trade and capital mobility and privatization. Both trends decrease the chance of elected officials to influence policies hence, discard people holding governments accountable for economic outcomes. Freeman speculates that “… there is evidence that as privatization and globalization have progressed, democratic citizens have lost faith in their governments’ capacities to manage their economies (Freeman 2006).” The notion that voters have lost faith in the ability of their governments to manage the economy suggests that in vote decision economic preference has less weight.

Two types of decision makers was distinguished, the electorally-dependent decision makers” (EDDs) and “non-electorally dependent decision makers” (NEDDs). The first of these labels EDD refers to the elected officials that make up the national government and NEDD refers to everyone else whose decisions might impact the economy including individuals, firms, interest groups, non-electorally dependent (entrenched) bureaucrats, foreign leaders, the WTO, and many more. There is a relatively low level of voting for economic purposes in state or provincial elections where the importance of “non-elected” actors (i.e., the federal government) on economic outcomes is considerable (Stein 1990). An open economy is expected to reduce the room to maneuver of electorally dependent officials and hence undermine democratic accountability. David Cameron identifies these in his classic article exploring the impact of exposure to the global economy on the size of government (Cameron 1978). Because trade typically implies specialization resulting from the forces of comparative advantage, the production structure in open economies is often more concentrated than in closed economies (Rodrik 1998; IMF 2005). Globalization increases the number of non elected particularly foreign decision makers affecting macro economy while more open economy shows fluctuation in GDP. the competency signal in open economies is weaker than in closed economies which in turn leads to lower levels of economic voting.

Cameron (1978) and others (Katzenstein 1985; Rodrik 1998) argue that economies that are particularly vulnerable to global economic shocks historically have adopted institutions designed to moderate the potential social and economic dislocations resulting from exogenous shocks to the domestic economy. This includes higher levels of government spending on social programmes (unemployment benefits, medical insurance, and pension schemes, for example), greater government-industry-labor coordination on economic policy making, and initiatives designed to maintain international competitiveness (government investment in human capital).

Some see liberal convergence in economic policies resulting from the competitive pressures of globalization: Because of global constraints, national governments are forced to liberalize the economy in response to similar initiatives by competing nations, resulting in what some characterize as a race to the bottom phenomenon. These liberal policies typically involve reducing the scope of government in the economy either through the introduction of more liberal regulatory regimes or privatization of state-owned entities. This “privatization” of domestic economies results in a more limited role of the state in shaping macro-economic outcomes. The conventional wisdom in this case is that a reduced role of government in managing the macro-economy results in lower democratic accountability.

A policy context with an extensive state sector increases the number of domestic institutions and other constellations of political actors actively involved in making economic policies – in short, it produces a more “dense” policy making environment. Take as an example contexts in which government ownership of industry is quite pronounced. The economic decisions that are taken by government-owned firms– such as capital investment decisions, employment policies, and even marketing strategies – are subject to a much broader range of oversight by interested parties (labor unions, competitors and consumers) than would be the case for private entities.

The study suggests that openness to the global economy and the size of the government sector are positively correlated. It is not the case that countries with high levels of trade openness have privatized their economies and adopted liberal economic policies. Subsequent analyses suggest that democracies fall along a single dimension characterized by open economies with an expansive state sector at one extreme and relatively closed economies with a limited state sector at the other. These two trends – more open economies and an expansive state sector – seem to be reinforcing each other’s negative impact on democratic accountability.
This of course is a static snapshot of current global realities for advanced democracies of the world. But if this current correlation between the scope of government and exposure to global economic influences persists, then as globalization increases we can expect declining levels of economic voting and a growing crisis of democratic accountability.

Raymond M. Duch, (2006), Competency Signals in a Crowded Political Context, Nuffield College Working Papers in Politics 2006 #13, Oxford univ.
http://www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/Politics/papers/2006/
duch_competency_signals_16_oct2006.pdf


Britain's worst drought for since 1920

Britain's first drought order in a decade came into force in south-east England for an estimated 13 million people, since March for areas of Sutton and East Surrey Water, Southern Water, Thames Water, South East Water, Mid Kent Water and Three Valleys Water. Last year has been the driest period since the 1976 drought, but there are some areas where it has been the driest since the 1920s. Range of measures was put in place such as banning car washes to standpipes in the streets and the idea of water recycling device sold quickly. Hosepipe bans resulted in a 15% reduction in water usage in the areas where they were imposed, according to Water UK. There was even a 10% reduction in areas without restrictions.

Statistics revealed that the water industry in England and Wales loses about 3.5 billion litres of water through broken and leaky pipes each day. The fact the region is densely populated in comparison with some parts of the country means even more water is used. The Environment Agency said turning the tap off when brushing you teeth can save up to five litres of water a minute. If the adult population of England and Wales did this 180 million litres a day could be saved - enough to supply nearly 500,000 homes.

Met Office figures show that rainfall in south-eastern and southern England was 36% above average this November. The rain has helped rivers and reservoirs to recover but has had little effect on the aquifers - underground water held in porous rocks - which provide 70% of public water supply in the South East. Recent rain has started to trickle down but the problem is that during the past two dry years the ground has hardened, making it more difficult for rainwater to seep through. It is assumed that if the rest of the winter is cold and dry, hosepipe bans across much of the South East must continue. In Kent and Thames Valley, about 70% of water comes from ground water sources which have become depleted over time. One solution would be to create new reservoirs and Thames Water is planning to build a new one in Oxfordshire.

A map of "water stressed areas" could be in place by 2009, with suppliers having to consider compulsory meters. It was found that customers with meters reduce their non-essential use of water by around 10-15%. A pilot project in Lydd, will see the installation of meters between January and March 2007 that marks the start of a programme to install 30,000 compulsory meters over the next nine years. According to the government it will decrease water bills for 70% of consumers.

Most of the industry in England and Wales was privatised in 1989, when regional monopolies were introduced under the regulation of industry watchdog Ofwat. Among its powers, Ofwat controls the maximum price at which water companies can sell their water. Every five years it conducts a "Periodic Review". After looking at business plans and investment requirements, it sets an annual price limit which is meant to allow enough revenue for operations, investment - and a profit. Ofwat's 2005-2010 review set price limits that allowed water companies to raise prices by an average of up to 4.2% a year on top of inflation - meaning that the average household bill would rise by £46, or 18%, to £295 during the period. It also said that companies could make a return on their assets of 5.1%

Thames Water
Thames Water is the biggest water company in England, supplying much of London and the surrounding counties.
• Population supplied: 8m
• Daily supply: 2,822m litres
• Mains pipe: 31,416 km
• Leakage: 895m litres/day (253 litres/property/day)
• Supply source: 83% surface, 17% ground

Water Calculator

Source: BBC on line, 14 Sept, 6 Oct, 4 Nov.,






.

Insight

Oxford Storey - Cobbled Holywell Street marks a clear boundary between cluttered Old Oxford and much later developments to the north. One of the most delightful streets in the city, it is lined by predominantly pastel coloured 17th and 18th century houses, as well as New College’s imposing Holywell Buildings on the left hand side. Towards the end of the street, is the Holywell Music Room, which was opened in 1748 and is said to be the world’s oldest surviving concert hall. Regular recitals and chamber concerts are held here in an auditorium that seats 250.



The country tit cannot hope to survive the urban jungle against the magpie mafia and cockney pigeon. It must adapt or, like my blackbird, die. …
Like birds, we instinctively adapt our senses to what we hear and see round us. We are creatures not of habit, but of context.

Simon Jenkins, Guardian, Dec 8


Government is very limited in its power of making men either virtuous or happy; it is only in the infancy of society that it can do any thing considerable; in its maturity it can only direct a few of our outward actions. But our moral dispositions and character depend very much, perhaps entirely, upon education.
William Godwin: An Account of a Seminary (1783) quoted by Woodcock (1963: 58)



Masaai women in spectacular bead dresses ..were less aware of the global context but intuited that their droughts were somehow to do with all the tourist buses ….In contrast to a Western tendency to see the costs of climate change more in terms of animals – the archetypal polar bear - their emphasis was very much on the impacts on people and crops.

Carbon markets - as with all markets - require that someone own the carbon being traded or, more specifically in this case, the right to release a quantity of carbon dioxide into the atmospheric commons.

Oxfam Campaign: Climate Change



And whilst it is true that language almost always precedes any commitment to action, many non-governmental organisations (NGOs) are now persuaded, in this instance, that linguistic usage has become not so much a precursor to action as a substitute for it.
Jonathon Porritt, BBC, Green Room, 23 Nov


In a world of unprecedented wealth, almost 2 million children die each year for want of a glass of clean water and adequate sanitation. Millions of women and young girls are forced to spend hours collecting and carrying water, restricting their opportunities and their choices. And water-borne infectious diseases are holding back poverty reduction and economic growth in some of the world's poorest countries.
Poverty, Power and Inequality



A prototype networked river - Imagine a network of pollution-monitoring sensors every 50 metres along a river bank, each of them transmitting data. Upstream, a sensor is dropped into the river every hour. It floats along monitoring flow and water quality, compares data with the static sensors on the bank, and uses a cheap GPS chip to store location references. All data is collated by base stations on a series of bridges, and cross-references with local agricultural activity, weather information from the Met Office and mapping data from Ordnance Survey. The result would be a continuous real-time map of water quality - a composity of intelligent data which feeds into hydrological models to inform policy planning and pollution mitigation.
IPM-NET, Sensor KTN, www.eci.ox.ac.uk



Researcher David Cowen and his team at Central Science Laboratory showed that applying slag to wheat growing in greenhouses had no effect on yield, but caused the plants to incorporate the silica and express it as spiky structures on their leaves. These spikes put rabbits off their feed, abrading their teeth and giving them stomach-ache (Pest Management Science DOI:10.1002/ps.1302). The neat part is that since humans eat the grain, not the leaves, it deters the rodents but has no effect on us. In trials, slag-treated crops saw losses fall by over half. Slag seems to have no adverse environmental effects, other than the sight of it. Indeed, it acts as a fertilizer in rice paddies and sugar cane fields. This looks like a very green solution: no pesticide, no poison, just a neatly targetted deterrent. A lot of bunnies are going to get slagged off, though.

Madsen Pirie, Adam Smith Institute



A UK parliamentary group has said that "the UN's Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) are 'difficult or impossible to meet' without curbing population growth," the BBC reports. It links a high birth rate to poor health and education, and low environmental quality. Richard Ottaway MP, a panel member, said that "No country has ever raised itself out of poverty without stabilizing population growth."
Aeon Mcnulty, Adam Smith Institute

The carbon cycle: a simple explanation

Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is a 'greenhouse gas' - it traps some of the radiation that would otherwise be lost to space, and causes the Earth's atmosphere to be warmer than it would otherwise be. Man-made emissions of carbon dioxide have caused the amount in the atmosphere to increase by about 30% since pre-industrial times, and this is a major cause of global warming. Therefore it is important for us to understand how the carbon cycle works in order for us to be able to predict how it may behave in the future.
Carbon is continuously cycled between reservoirs in the ocean, on the land, and in the atmosphere, where it occurs primarily as carbon dioxide. On land, carbon occurs primarily in living biota and decaying organic matter. In the ocean, the main form of carbon is dissolved carbon dioxide and small creatures, such as plankton. The largest reservoir is the deep ocean, which contains close to 40,000 Gt C, compared to around 2,000 Gt C on land, 750 Gt C in the atmosphere and 1,000 Gt C in the upper ocean. The atmosphere, biota, soils, and the upper ocean are strongly linked. The exchange of carbon between this fast-responding system and the deep ocean takes much longer (several hundred years).

The ocean takes up carbon dioxide when it is cold, at higher latitudes, and releases it near the tropics. Photosynthesis takes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and transfers it to vegetation, while respiration releases carbon dioxide back into the atmosphere. These processes are shown schematically in the figure below. Although natural transfers of carbon dioxide are approximately 20 times greater than those due to human activity, they are in near balance, with the magnitude of carbon sources closely matching those of the sinks. The additional carbon resulting from human activity is the cause of atmospheric carbon dioxide rises over the last 150 years.

Changes in climate have a significant effect on the carbon cycle. Increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration increase plant photosynthesis and the amount of carbon stored in vegetation. However, increases in temperature also lead to increases in plant and soil respiration rates, which tend to reduce the size of the terrestrial carbon store. In some regions, the changes in climate (such as decreased rainfall) can also reduce plant photosynthesis and reduce the ability of vegetation to sequester carbon.

Carbon dioxide from the atmosphere dissolves in the surface waters. On entering the ocean, carbon dioxide undergoes rapid chemical reactions with the water and only a small fraction remains as carbon dioxide. The carbon dioxide and the associated chemical forms are collectively known as dissolved inorganic carbon or DIC. This chemical partitioning of DIC ('buffering') affects the air–sea transfer of carbon dioxide, as only the unreacted carbon dioxide fraction in the sea water takes part in ocean–atmosphere interaction.

The dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) is transported by ocean currents. Near the poles, cold dense waters sink towards the bottom of the ocean and subsequently spread through the ocean basins. These waters return to the surface hundreds of years later. As more carbon dioxide can dissolve in cold water than in warm, these cold dense waters sinking at high latitudes are rich in carbon and act to move large quantities of carbon from the surface to deep waters. This mechanism is known as the 'solubility pump'.

As well as being transported around the ocean, dissolved inorganic carbon is also used by ocean biology. In the surface waters, drifting microscopic oceanic plants known as phytoplankton grow. As with land based plants, phytoplankton take in carbon dioxide during growth and convert it to complex organic forms. The phytoplankton are eaten by drifting oceanic animals known as zooplankton, which themselves are preyed upon by other zooplankton, fish or even whales. During these biological processes, some of the carbon taken in during growth of the phytoplankton is broken down from the organic forms of the biology back to inorganic forms (DIC). If between the carbon uptake by phytoplankton and the subsequent return of the carbon to DIC, the biological material has been transported to depth, for example by the sinking of large biologically formed particles, there is a net transfer of carbon from the surface to depth. This process is termed the 'biological pump'. The carbon can also sink as skeletal structures of the biology which is known as the 'carbonate pump'.

The terrestrial biosphere's role in the carbon cycle


Carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is utilised by plants by photosynthesis. The carbon they absorb is allocated within the plant to make up its roots, wood and leaves. Some of this carbon is then lost - either when the leaves drop, or when the plant dies - and becomes soil carbon. Microbes within the soil breakdown this carbon and release it back to the atmosphere as respiration, in the form of carbon dioxide. This is the terrestrial carbon cycle on a small scale (i.e. on the scale of individual plants).

On a larger scale (i.e. across geographical regions), the distribution of vegetation is important in the carbon cycle. Different plant types store different amounts of carbon, but they grow at different speeds and favour different conditions. For example trees can store more carbon than grass (per unit area of land covered), but they take a lot longer to grow. So if a previously barren area of land becomes fertile for some reason then grasses will grow first, but trees may take over later. The local climatic conditions, and how they change over time, determine which type of plant dominates in any given location.

Human activity also changes the land use, and hence the carbon stored by the biosphere - cutting down trees removes a potentially large absorber of carbon dioxide and if the wood is burnt, or left to decay, then the carbon is released back to the atmosphere. Disturbance of vegetation also affects the soil - deforestation can also lead to large amounts of carbon being lost from the soil. This has an impact on the fertility of the ground and may affect future vegetation growth in the area. Such changes in land use (predominantly in the tropical forests) accounted for the most significant part of anthropogenic carbon dioxide release during the 19th Century. It was not until about 1950 that fossil fuel emissions became significantly larger than the source from land use change. Present day emissions due to anthropogenic land use change still amount to around 1 GtC per year.



source:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre
/models/carbon_cycle/intro_global.html


Carbon Trading and Taxation


To stop climate change new policy solutions are required which engage individuals and organisations with the need to make dramatic cuts in emissions and at the same instance enable technology to play its part. There are two main framework approaches which can be adopted to reducing emissions:

•Capping and trading
•Carbon taxation

And each approach has many different possible variations. None of these policy opt ions would operate in isolation. I t is likely that policies which promote efficiency and renewable energy, support new technologies, give advice and information to business / consumers and so on would still be part of the overall policy package.

Carbon taxation-led policy
A carbon taxation- led response to reducing emissions would have certain advantages. Firstly, it would take advantage of administration systems which already exist. Secondly it would be an economically efficient policy. I t would also avoid much of the complexity of an expanded EUETS scheme, and taxation levels could be adjusted to deliver required levels of carbon savings. Carbon taxation can be combined with tax relief schemes for those who adopt carbon saving measures (as in the current Climate Change Agreements) and would be part of an overall taxation strategy which would be designed to meet social and economic as well as environmental goals.

Domestic Tradable Quotas (DTQs)
For Domestic Tradable Quotas to be functional it needs to establish the maximum level of greenhouse gases which can be emitted from energy use in a given year. This carbon budget would be reduced year on year in order to meet emissions reduction targets. The carbon budget would be divided into carbon units. A proportion of these units would be allocated to all adult citizens by government, on a free and equal per capita basis. Firms and other organisations would be required to purchase units on a national carbon market. When individuals and organisations purchased fuel and electricity they would be required to surrender unit s corresponding to the carbon content of their purchase. Individuals with surplus units could offer them for sale to those who wished to buy extra.

Personal Carbon Allowances / Rations + carbon caps for organisations

Personal carbon allowances (PCAs) would be a UK-wide allowance system covering the carbon emissions generated from the fossil fuel energy used by individuals within the home and for personal transport, including carbon equivalent emissions from air travel. It would account for around half of current UK carbon emissions from energy. The primary aim of the scheme would be to deliver guaranteed levels of carbon savings in successive years in an equitable way. I t is similar in most respects to the individual element of DTQs. The key differences are firstly that PCAs would cover public surface transport and personal air travel, as well as the motoring and household energy sources covered by DTQs. Secondly, children would also be awarded PCAs (but receive a smaller allowance than for adults) .

The conclusions which can be drawn from modelling research are:
•Scientists can provide much more certain answers about the effect of long- term reduct ions scenarios than short - term emissions reductions. Science cannot tell us very much about what is required, say, within the next five years to avoid particular outcomes.
•Scientists can’t quant ify the dangers of freezing emissions per annum at any level– to get a certain outcome emissions need to reduce towards zero.
•The not ion of a ‘sustainable emission rate’ is indefensible. The only safe sustainable emissions rate is zero.
•What is required is a ‘containment ’ scenario. The peak of atmospheric concentrations (e.g. whether or not 550ppm is exceeded) matters far less than the total carbon emit ted into the atmosphere.


Source: Taxing and Trading; 2005, Editors: Sarah Keay-Br ight and Tina Fawcett, St Anne’s College, Oxford University

Making Sense

"With least abode where best I feel content."
Shakespeare

"When most impeach'd stands least in thy control."
17th Earle of Oxforde

Swans sing before they die,
Samuel Taylor Coleridge


A few minutes ago every tree was excited, bowing to the roaring storm, waving, swirling, tossing their branches in glorious enthusiasm like worship. But though to the outer ear these trees are now silent, their songs never cease.
John Muir


Happiness is about earning the esteem of others, behaving ethically, contributing selflessly to human betterment and assuaging the need to belong. We have finally understood it is not economic growth that delivers these results - it is the way we behave. Will Hutton, Guardian


How glorious a greeting the sun gives the mountains!
John Muir


Nature, to be commanded, must be obeyed.
Francis Bacon

Environmental Estimates

Climate change is an environmental factor which already influences the wildlife of UK. Sea level rise is affecting the coastal countries and is leading to unprecedented rates and of change to our coastal landscape and wildlife.

Climate change isn't the only thing affecting the ability of our earth to support life. We're killing forests, poisoning our rivers, fishing out the seas - the entirety of which is raining hell on Earth.

A qualitative estimate in the field and laboratory found that the carbon in Siberian permafrost decomposes readily and is released quickly when thawing occurs since It is not only the pool of carbon that is of interest, but also its reactivity (UKCIP).

The belief that a positive feedback mechanism operates between climate warming, forest fires and future climate change was also approved (Randerson, J.T et al. 2006). A conservative estimate concludes that due to past emissions we are already committed to 0.4 and 0.6 0C warming, and a corresponding 8-10cm of sea-level rise by 2100 (UKCIP, 2006).

What Climate Change increasingly bears in mind are uncertainties and unpredictable future consequences. Vulnerability to natural disaster, such as drought, and famine will increase causing massive environment migration and homelessness. People's suffering tends to escalate disproportionately after disaster which makes adaptation more difficult since people are not acting rationally under extreme emotional stress.

Economies move along balanced pathways and do not examine their adjustment in response to exogenous shocks, such as extreme weather events. They therefore neglect the fact that welfare losses from climate change impacts may be very different if they fall on prosperous versus weakened economies.

Economically the distribution of extremes – not just their average cost – must be taken into account when assessing potential damages of future extreme weather events for that matter of disruption in coping mechanism. Governments are becoming increasingly aware of the importance of adaptation, but there remains a gulf between policy and the day-to-day practice of adaptation to climate change.

Cameron Hepburn, an energy economist at Oxford University made remarks that: “Technological change tends to be disruptive to business models, and climate change will be a disruptive influence, creating danger for incumbents and opportunities for new entrants.”

The opportunity for businesses could be greater than the expenditure numbers suggest, because companies that can help reduce emissions will have an opportunity to displace their more polluting competitors.

And if politicians are serious about wanting to head off the threat of global warming, they have to put the policies in place to make it happen.

There is a need to improve the information exchange between CBOs, NGOs, academia and policymakers, and upscale these locally successful adaptation initiatives. Initiatives to advocate less greedy life style on a global level need to be seriously put forward.

The work of the Corporate Leaders Group on Climate Change is a positive initiative. While the shift to low carbon will emphasis the need to think in whole systems and not just producer categories (Milliband).

Individuals should be given incentives to make the correct decisions, while carbon trading system places the environmental problem onto the consumer, the firms need not be ignored. If prices perfectly reflect externalities and the optimal management of resources, then there would be lesser need for too much administrative control, since prices would be correct.

It should not turn out to be that under emissions trading, governments allocate permits to big industrial polluters so they can trade "rights to pollute" amongst themselves as the need arises. Such schemes should not allow us to sidestep the most fundamentally effective response to climate change that we can take, which is to invent efficient energy.

One complaint by business is that the financial pressure on them from their institutional shareholders affects their capability to innovate. The Guardian analysis found in all 10 sectors looked at - automobiles and parts, IT hardware, pharmaceuticals and biotechnology, electronic and electrical, software and computer services, chemicals, aerospace and defence, engineering and machinery, telecommunications, and health – the UK cost of funds is among the highest in the developed world. Steve Radley of the EEF said that for bigger firms, with large turnovers, the cost of funds was not much of a deterrent to R&D spending, because they were not exposing themselves to much risk. “for medium sized firms, however, innovation exposes them to a high degree of risk and the cost of funds is an issue.” Profitability had been so squeezed in recent years that it was hard for companies to break out of the “vicious circle” and invest for the long term.

There need to be more incentive for businesses to move on the green direction. There is an urgent need for stricter regulation, oversight, and penalties for polluters on community, local, national and international levels, as well as support for communities adversely impacted by climate change. But currently such policies are nigh-on invisible, as they contradict the sacred cows of economic growth and the free market.

Undoubtedly, breaking this paralysis will require immense moral courage. For courage, leaders of today need only to look back in time a little and see what their predecessors did. For example, the hard-won ban against slavery deliberately went against what was considered economically justified.

On the positive side climate change is an opportunity for communities getting together and local authorities being thoughtful to tackle common environmental issues. New opportunities for innovation and creativity to seek green solutions arise from coping with climate change. It is everyone's issue - not by framing the issue purely in terms of pricing, trade and economic growth, we should not reduce the scope of the response to climate change to market-based solutions. Climate change has increased awareness on values that previously was ignored, since the problem is beyond economic damages. It is crucial not to ignore damages from unquantifiable variables such as human lives lost, and species extinction.


Sources:

www.oxfam.org.uk/climatechange

http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/research/biodiversity/branch.php

UKCIP Climate Digest: November 2006, http://www.ukcip.org.uk/news_releases/38.pdf

BBC online, Kevin Smith, Carbon Trade Watch, Transnational Institute, 9 November 2006

The Guardian, John Chapman, former secretary of the DTI’s innovation advisory board, Feb 3, 2006

http://environ-econ.blogspot.com/


Climate Change Already is Impossible


Saving the planet from climate change may already be impossible. That's because environmentalists have never spoken past the taboo which lies at the heart of the matter. It's not flying which should be curtailed, it's procreating. The Earth cannot sustain the number of people who live on it. With the fossil fuel based technologies for generating power we have, in order to prevent climate change through excessive CO2 emissions, more and more people would continually have to emit less and less CO2 each. Population control should have begun decades ago. The rate of procreation and the ability of modern medicine and agriculture to keep people alive has outstripped the deaths caused by war, old age, famine, and disease which kept the population in check. As a result, environmentalists have demanded a simplistic per capita ceiling on CO2 emissions starting in nations they define as "industrialized." This concept flies in the face of the fact that those who produce the highest per capita emissions also happen to be among the highest per capita producers of wealth and food and the greatest economic engine in the world on which all others directly or indirectly depend. The entire world's economy requires their output and consumption to sustain itself. A sudden reduction in their economy would have grave consequences globally, not marginally reducing the world's total economic output but severely impacting it. Environmentalists would avert a looming global ecological disaster by exchanging it for an immeditate global economic disaster whose consequences would be every bit as dire. This would include mass starvation, mass poverty, political and social upheavals, even wars. The most vulnerable populations would be those in the third world all over Asia, Africa, and Latin America. At that point the environmentalists would presumably wash their hands of the entire matter by saying it is a problem for economists and politicians to solve and outside of their area of expertise. The liklihood of this happening is virtually nil. The largest producer of CO2 and the most productive engine of wealth also happens to be by far the strongest military power and will not be persuaded to destroy its economy for the greater good either voluntarily nor is it possible to persuade it by force.

Had European environmentalists who seem most concerned been honest, they'd have also concentrated their efforts decades ago to replace the carbon based technologies with others having less or no environmental impact and urged other governments to undertake the same quest. Instead, they sat idly by while their own societies invested their technological capacities on useless ego boosting projects like a redundant super jumbo airplane, a redundant space program, and a pie in the sky project to harness thermonuclear fusions which is at least several decades away from success if it ever is made to work at all. Their self admittedly inadequate program, the Kyoto protocol has proven to be a complete flop. Beyond not persuading the largest producer of CO2 to agree to its inequitable reductions, those nations in Europe which did sign up to it will largely fail to meet their agreed to targets by a wide margin, having refused to take effective action for exactly the same reason the largest producer refused to agree, namely its adverse econimic impact. By limiting their definition of the problem to a purely environmental one and excluding all of its other aspects and ramifications, the environmentalists guaranteed that it would not be solved. Why did they do that? There are only two possible reasons I can think of. Either they are incompetent or their true goal was political, not ecological. Now along with their friends whose crusade has always been overtly purely political, they've managed to alienate and isolate the largest single force on earth. What do they do for an encore, where do they take us from here? Fly all you like...in the time you have left. With mad men in charge of government of Iran, a nation determined to build nuclear weapons to destroy those it defines as its enemies, our end may be much sooner than even global warming would have it.

Source: Nick Robisnson weblog: Mark wrote

The Oxford Storey

Broad Street is aptly named, though it was originally known as Horsemongers Street after a horse fair held here just outside the city walls from 1235. narrow at each end and wide in the middle, it has a feeling of spaciousness, emphasised by the grounds of Trinity College on the north side, which are separated from the street only by a wrought – iron gate. The far end is dominated by the Sheldonian Theatre and Clarendon Building and much of the south side is distinctive for its colourful facades above some interesting shops, including Oxfam, the first shop to be opened by the charity in 1948.

Futher learning points

Every type of learning - even if its not directly job-related - brings economic benefits to society, as well as huge social benefits to both individuals and society. The Report from the Centre for Research on the Wider Benefits of Learning concluded that the importance of learning is "wide-ranging, extending well beyond qualifications and economic success". It found that there were measurable benefits in terms of health, behaviour, crime and tolerance.

BBC, 16 Dec., Adults abandon further education


Carbon emission permits should be auctioned – rather than allocated by officials as nearly all are today – as a way of getting a proper market into the system instead of the bureaucracy that defines it today. Fair point: if we are going to have an emissions trading system, there seems no reason for governments to run it at all. All they need to do is set the overall limit, and let the market do it.

The prescription for personal carbon allowances would be a powerful incentive on individuals to economize their carbon use, and they would favour poorer people, who tend to use less-polluting forms of transport, for example. But ... the idea seems like a bureaucratic nightmare. Various interest groups (the elderly who need to keep warm, disabled people who need private transport, you name it) would both demand and probably get exemptions and allowances. Householders who live in listed buildings would no doubt demand exemptions because their houses could not be insulated or converted to greener fuels. Imagine the bureaucracy in all of that.

Likewise, ....... the argument on green taxes. True, we ought to be taxing bad things (like pollution) and not good things (like work). But when it is suggested that, for example, council tax should be assessed on the basis of how environmentally friendly your house is, I know that an army of inspectors and tax collectors will have to be hired. If we are going to tax carbon use, we need to keep it simple. And honest: UK motorists already pay far more tax than their carbon use would justify.

Adam Smith Institute Weblog, 16 Dec



Just when you thought it was safe to rely on the windmills, a new way of tapping wind power emerges. It's kites, the things you fly on a string, and a Kite Wind Generator could, we are told by Wired, match nuclear plants in energy output.
When wind hits the KiteGen, kites spring from funnels at the ends of poles. For each kite, winches release a pair of high-resistance cables to control direction and angle … KiteGen's core is set in motion by the twirl of the kites; the rotation activates large alternators producing current. A control system on autopilot optimizes the flight pattern to maximize the juice produced as it sails on night and day.
Adam Smith Institute Weblog, 16 Dec

Features common to many famines: (i) a famine may occur without a substantial decline in aggregate food availability; (ii) famines often have a very uneven impact on different groups of population; and (iii) expectations about future food markets affect current market behaviour and result in starvation for certain groups of population.
Famine without shortages, Oxford University Press


"the rich are getting richer, the poor poorer, and the gap is widening." It isn't true. Many of the poor are getting richer; last year more were lifted from poverty than ever before in human history. A study of Gini coefficients by Paul Ormerod and others shows that the gap is narrowing. Much of the world now knows how to go about the process of wealth creation that made us rich. It is not true yet, alas, for many countries in Africa.

The wealth-creation process is pretty forgiving, in that you can do a lot wrong, but it still works. It can survive things like tariffs and subsidies and a degree of government interference. There are three things, however, which it cannot survive: civil war, genocide, and socialism. Poor Africa has had more than its share of all three.

Adam Smith Institute Weblog,15 Dec



It takes a shift of only a few degrees in average global temperature to make an enormous difference. The last ice age was only about nine degrees colder on average than today. Even in the past 1000 years, the planet's climate has varied significantly on the basis of shifts in average temperature no more than two degrees colder or warmer than today. From about AD 950 to 1250 Europe and North America were unusually warm, leading the Vikings to attempt to settle them is named Greenland. from approximately 1550 to 1850 Europe suffered a period of unusual cold termed the Little Ice Age, with London's Thames River freezing solid enough to allow a festival to be held atope it.

The Coming Democracy - Environment


If goal is to arrest atmospheric CO2 at 2 times pre-industrial CO2 by 2080, then carbon tax must be at least 1.0 $/kg-C ($1000/tonne-Carbon). 1.0 $/kg-C tax doubles the price of electricity generated from fossil fuel. 1.0 $/kg-C tax does not give natural gas a price advantage over coal if natural gas costs more than $5/1000 ft^3. MHD-Coal may be competitive with natural gas regardless of the carbon tax. European auto-fuel taxes already exceed 1.0 $/kg-C ($2/gallon).
Preindustrial CO2 is 0.028% by volume. Starting at 0.001% CO2 in 1850, industrial CO2 has been compounding 3%/year. 1950 CO2 is 0.0300 % (300 ppmv) and 2000 CO2 is 0.037% (370 ppmv), using Mauna Loa data.
Continuing at 3% CO2 (atmospheric carbon) increase per year adds 0.028% to existing 0.028% preindustrial by 2038, giving 0.056% CO2. 0.056% minus (y 2000) 0.037% is 0.019%. The added 0.019% CO2 increase by volume represents 414 Tkg-C (414 trillion kilograms carbon). We are already 1/3 of the way toward CO2 doubling.
Applying 1.0 $/kg-C carbon tax to 414 Tkg-C, collects 3% World GDP between 2000 and 2080. This assumes 3% annual economic growth and CO2 doubling by 2080. If CO2 doubles by 2038, the 1.0 $/kg-C represents 15% World GDP.
Arresting CO2 at twice preindustrial by 2080 requires approximately 400 TWe y (1 million giga-watt-years electric) atomic generation between 2000 and 2080. After 2080 World annual atomic power requirement is 25 TWe. This assumes world population is constant after 2030. All non-nuclear scenarios double CO2 between 2038 and 2080, with exponential increase continuing thereafter.

The first 60 TWe-y will have to come from 1500 +/- 500 light-water reactors (LWRs). 60 TWe-y LWRs consume 10 MtUnatural, the estimated World uranium resource base. Plutonium from spent LWR fuel, military plutonium and military HEU is used to load 2500 +/- 1000 fast breeder reactors (FBRs) by 2035. By 2080 there will be 25,000 FBRs operating and power-plant CO2 emission will cease. World energy grows 2%/year until 2080, assuming world population stops increasing before 2030. Hydrogen and ammonia will be produced by electrolysis. Aluminum cars will burn ammonia. Propeller aircraft will burn liquid hydrogen. Phosphate fertilizer, detergent and concrete will be produced in arc furnaces.

1.0 $/kg-C carbon tax increases pulverized coal power cost 0.085 $/kWh more than it increases CCGT (Combined-Cycle gas turbine) power cost. This cost differential is the minimum required to make CCGT less expensive than power generated from pulverized coal. Natural gas is 3 to 6 times as expensive as coal on a BTU basis.
Guardian, Comments, 15 Dec

Work without Hope

All Nature seems at work. Slugs leave their lair—
The bees are stirring—birds are on the wing—
And Winter slumbering in the open air,
Wears on his smiling face a dream of Spring!
And I the while, the sole unbusy thing,
Nor honey make, nor pair, nor build, nor sing.


Yet well I ken the banks where amaranths blow,
Have traced the fount whence streams of nectar flow.
Bloom, O ye amaranths! bloom for whom ye may,
For me ye bloom not! Glide, rich streams, away!
With lips unbrightened, wreathless brow, I stroll:
And would you learn the spells that drowse my soul?
Work without Hope draws nectar in a sieve,
And Hope without an object cannot live.


Samuel Taylor Coleridge

Lines Composed 21st February 1825

Practical notes

only by following the laws of nature could man triumph over his environment: 'The empire of man over things depends wholly on the arts and sciences. For we cannot command nature except by obeying her. Sir Francis Bacon

just as only a strong civil society may guarantee democracy, only a strong state may assure competitive markets. Democracy and Public Management Reform: Oxford Univ Press

"the link between public service quality/performance and complaints or litigation deserves more exploration ... So does the role of insurance, risk pooling and financing liability arrangements in shaping public service provision". ESRC, Public Servies Programme

What's measured is what matters - Assumptions underlying governance by targets are synecdoche (taking a part to stand for a whole) and that problems of measurement and gaming do not matter. Christopher Hood, Oxford Univ.

It is right to posit a trade-off between exit and voice and argue that social investment, or loyalty, lowers exit and increases voice. Public Services Programme, Oxford Univ.

Informal networks of employees are increasingly at the forefront, and the general health and "connectivity" of these groups can have a significant impact on strategy execution and organizational effectiveness.

Performance management helps organisations achieve their strategic goals. It reminds us that being busy is not the same as producing results.


there has been a systematic effort by activist investors to promulgate an alternative definition of best interests that emphasizes social values –environmentalism, support for human rights, pro-union workplace policies.


When every place looks the same, there is no such thing as place anymore - because everywhere looks like everywhere else, dominated by the usual suspects .....

Linking skills with performance management

It has become an accepted truism that the way to succeed for individuals, organisations and nations, is through skills based competition. Yet job growth, work design and organisational practice consistently fail to follow this route. Management rhetoric accepts that skill development route to prosperity. Management practice lags behind.

Skill is complex. It may be possessed by individuals, through qualifications, experience, expertise or attributes. It is built into jobs, the successful completion of which may demand autonomy, decision making, technical know-how or responsibility. And it produces, and is itself the product of, status.
Essentially skill is part of a social system; and skilled and expert work is a product of the way different parts of this system relate to one another where none of these elements are static and all are subject to change. Performance too is not readily defined or measured,
For organisations in the private sector there are a range of financial ratios including share price, profits, turnover, dividend yield and dividend cover. Specialists in employment might also assess absenteeism, staff turnover, staff costs and the presence or absence of various human resource practices
For individuals, performance measures might include pay rates, job satisfaction, status, career opportunities, working conditions, levels of control and discretion or management style. While for national governments the extent to which firms contribute to civil society, employment growth and investment plans are the areas of focus. A multi-stakeholder audit might provide a basis for exploring these different notions of performance. Link between skills and performance for its measurement is difficult to establish. These include examining human resource management, high involvement management practices, high commitment management practices, high performance work practices and high performance work systems. Performance measures also vary as productivity, self-reported employee productivity or labour productivity. But it has also been taken to refer to: product quality, various financial measures, pay rates, turnover, efficiency (including labour efficiency), machine efficiency, scrap rates, labour turnover, job creation, absenteeism, perceived organisational performance and perceived market performance. Apart from large number of measures and variety of proxies there is a risk of bias towards the dominant occupational group and studies may omit groups such as contingent workers. Moreover, assumptions about causality seem to depend more on the specialism of the manager concerned than any evidence available to the researcher. Almost all studies focus on organisational performance and the gains that accrue to firms rather than the benefits for individuals. Employee’s and employer’s gain assume to demonstrate positive outcome. It can be argued that skills are the litmus test of human resource management and that without skills other building blocks such as performance related pay or employee involvement make little sense (Keep and Mayhew 1996). However, intuitively attractive as this link is, the evidence suggests that the presence or absence of human resource management is management's choice rather than the inevitable result of a high-skill strategy. Sophisticated human resource management may also be implemented in workplaces that compete on low skills. The most positive data on the link between skills and performance seems to come from manufacturing that confirm the link between high skill and high quaLity. In service sector links are harder to gauge. Good service may be equated to the number of staff available rather than their individual capabilities and Lloyd's (2003) research into the fitness industry found that, while technical skills formed part of work processes, 'soft' skills, including the ability to please customers were far more highly valued. Therefore increasing skills are one way of competing rather than the way of competing. The argument is that society would improve if there were fewer low paid workers and that national competitiveness would be more sustainable if firms concentrated on high margin, high quality goods that could be less readily outsourced to developing nations and that individual workers would also gain. Highly skilled workers tend to be paid more, they are more likely to benefit from human resource practices than their unskilled peers, highly skilled work is less vulnerable to being outsourced.

Extracts:

Skill & Performance, issue paper 9, www.skope.ox.ac.uk

Arthur, J. (1999) ‘Explaining variation in human resource practices in US steel mini-mills,’ in P. Cappelli (ed) Employment Practices and Business Strategy, Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press.

Keep, E. and Mayhew, K. (1999) ‘The assessment: knowledge, skills and competitiveness,’ Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 15(1):1-15.


SMEs
A guide for freelancing that explains the procedures that one has to go through for setting up a business which was reviewed by expert bodies for recent changes in tax regime and further refinements and amendments. Once you set up a business you enter a whole new realm of laws and regulations.

At the outset, you need to decide which form of business is most appropriate for you, and the aim of this section is to give you some information about the various options available to you, to assist you in making a choice about which is most suitable for your circumstances. These are some of the vehicles through which you can operate:
limited company
limited liability partnership (LLP)
partnership
sole trader
composite company
umbrella company
offshore trust
PAYE agency worker

Technically, you do not actually need to set up a limited company to be a freelancer. In law, you can work as a self-employed sole trader or partner, as an employee of a composite or “umbrella” company or as a PAYE employee to an agent. But Act 2003 Section 44 effectively prevents individuals from being self-employed where an agency is involved, as it obliges the agency to treat the individual as if they were an employee.

Important note: One cannot determine one’s own status nor do so by agreement with the client; status is determined by the nature of the engagement.

A limited company also offers the owners (i.e. the shareholders) protection against liability for the company’s debts. So, if the company were to become insolvent, as a shareholder, you would lose only the value of your shares. To set up a limited company is to go to an accountant or company formation bureau and buy an “off-the-shelf” company. You can also purchase off-the-shelf companies from specialist company formation agents. The name and the Articles of Association of this company can be very easily modified to your requirements. The Companies House website www.companieshouse.gov.uk.

A limited company must have at least one director, a company secretary and a registered office, and must have “Limited” or “Ltd” after its name. The company secretary can also be a director but a sole director cannot be the company secretary. This means that there must always be at least two people involved in the running of a company.
The registered office must be within the jurisdiction in which the company was incorporated.

What is a Limited Liability Partnership (LLP)?
An LLP is an alternative corporate business vehicle, introduced on 6 April 2001, which gives the benefits of limited liability but allows its members the flexibility of organising their internal structure as a traditional partnership.
An LLP is different from a traditional partnership in that it is a legal person separate from its members. In many ways it is a partnership in name only. It has “members” rather than partners and must be formally incorporated to exist. Because an LLP is a legal person it is subject to some parts of the Companies Act 1985.
The designated members, who have a similar responsibility to a director and secretary of a limited company, together with the other members, control the business. They provide the capital for the business, and LLPs are similar to partnerships and sole traders in this respect.
Incomes derived by the members are more similar to those derived within a partnership than to dividends paid by companies. As a member of an LLP, you are self-employed and must register with the HMRC within three months, otherwise you may be liable to a penalty of £100. You can register by calling the helpline for the newly self-employed on 08459 154 515 (open from 08.00 to 20.00 Monday to Friday, and 08.00 to 16.00 Saturday and Sunday), or by completing form CWF1 ‘Becoming self-employed and registering for Class 2 National Insurance contributions and/or tax’.

Umbrella and composite companies

Umbrella companies come in two guises:
Umbrella companies, which act as a single limited company for a large number of contractors who operate within the Pay As You Earn (PAYE) scheme
Composite companies, in which individual workers own a share of a company that is fully managed by administrators, and receive dividends from their share
This is something of any oversimplification; in reality, umbrella companies come in all shapes and sizes and can be quite complicated.

Their purpose is to make life simpler for contractors while maximising their earnings, by taking responsibility for administrative affairs and compliance on behalf of the contractor, and reducing the amount of tax that they pay. Some offer a lot of benefits, whilst others offer nothing different from standard temporary employment.


Choosing an accountant

When choosing an accountant you should look for Membership of a professional body such as one of the Chartered Institutes. This offers you more protection against malpractice. Remember that anybody can call themselves an accountant, qualified or not. Accountants who specialise in handling freelancers are usually limited companies and, therefore, in the event of there being a complaint, the freelancer has full rights under UK law.
Devising a basic plan
Unless you are borrowing money for your business venture, you probably do not need to produce a written marketing plan, but you will almost certainly find it invaluable to consider the following points, and commit some of your thoughts, at least, to paper:
Clearly define your product and service offerings
Identify your target audience and market segments
Review the scope, size and trends within your market segments
Define your pricing model
Identify your main competition
Identify your strengths and weaknesses (SWOT analysis)
Differentiate your products and services by defining a series of Emotional Selling Points
(ESPs) – ask existing customers why they bought from you

Develop a positive attitude
Having a positive attitude and believing in yourself are very important if you are to succeed in marketing yourself. Not only that, but planning, organisation and persistence will pay dividends. Never forget that people buy from people, and so always try to treat your business contacts as you would like to be treated. Listen carefully to what they want, ask them for feedback, keep your promises, and be thoroughly professional in all your dealings with them.
And finally, remember that having a proper marketing strategy and marketing expenditure is a pointer for being in business on your own account.



Source: www.pcg.org.uk
GUIDE TO FREELANCING, for freelance consultants and contractors, Edition 4.0
Published August 2006

Useful links and resources
Institute of Chartered Accountants for England and Wales: www.icaew.co.uk
Institute of Chartered Accountants for Scotland: www.icas.org.uk
Association of Chartered Certified Accountants: www.acca.org.uk
List of PCG affiliates: www.pcg.org.uk/affiliates
PCG – Insurances: www.pcg.org.uk
HSE guide: www.hse.gov.uk/pubns/hse40.pdf
Financial Services Authority: www.fsa.gov.uk
PCG Affiliates – insurance: www.pcg.org.uk/affiliates

Marketing
Roy Sheppard’s website: www.Smart-Worker.com
Online agency freelancing database: www.jobserve.com
iProfile: www.theskillsmarket.com

Pension Plans
PCG’s Guide to Pensions: available for members at www.pcg.org.uk
For a state pension forecast: www.thepensionservice.gov.uk
FSA publications: www.fsa.gov.uk/consumer/pensions/5_tools/publications.html
HMRC overview of Pensions Tax Simplification: www.hmrc.gov.uk/pensionschemes/pts.htm
The Motley Fool guide to Pensions, including alternatives such as SIPPs –
www.fool.co.uk/pensions

Oxford Scholarship Online search box

Civil Resistance and Power politics

Project Quetions:

1. Were the reasons for the use of non-violent methods derived from an absolute rejection of all political violence, or from more particular strategic, moral, cultural and other considerations?

2. To the extent that a non-violent movement was able to operate effectively, was this in part due to particular favourable circumstances in the overall power situation, both domestic and international?

3. Has civil resistance demonstrated a particular value as one instrument for challenging fraudulent election processes and ensuring a free and fair outcome?

4. Can an international legal/normative regime provide a favourable background for civil resistance?

5. To what extent did the non-violent movement succeed in undermining, or threatening to undermine, the adversary’s sources of power and legitimacy?

6. Was any force or violence used alongside non-violent methods, and if so what were its effects?

7. What has been the role of external actors of all kinds (government, quasi-non-governmental organisations, NGOs, diasporas) in assisting or attempting to influence civil resistance in this country?

8. Is there evidence of agents provocateurs being sent in by the state, or of other efforts to discredit the movement by depicting it as violent?

9. How has the development of technologies, especially information technology (e.g. fax, email, internet), affected the capacities of civil resistance?

10. Was there any implicit or explicit threat of a future use of force or violence to carry forward the non-violent movement’s cause if the movement did not achieve a degree of success, or if extreme repression was used against it?

11. If there was such a threat, was it from the leaders of the movement itself, from potential allies among its ‘constituency’ of support, or from outside forces such as, for example, the governments of neighbouring states or international bodies?

12. In cases where outside governments or organizations supported the movement, did they understand and respect the reasons for avoiding the use of force or violence? Should rules be established regarding the character and extent of such external support?

13. Was civil resistance in one country instigated or assisted by another state as a mere instrument for pursuing its own ends or embarrassing an adversary? If accusations of this kind were made, did they have any credibility?

14. Overall, can the movement be viewed as a success or failure? How adequately do these labels reflect outcomes that may be highly ambiguous, especially with the benefit of hindsight?

15. In what time-frame should the effectiveness of civil resistance be judged?

16. If they subsequently entered into government, did the leaders and exponents of civil resistance show any distinctive approach to the management and use of military and police power by their state?

17. Is there a connection between the practice of civil resistance and liberal outcomes? If yes, what is the nature of that connection, and what lessons might be learned?