Risk, Chance and Probability

Dr. Price, of Llangeinor in Glamorgan, pioneered the gathering of information on death, thus becoming at the same time a founder of both epidemiology and the insurance industry. Price organised Thomas Bayes' papers after his death, and wrote up the work on prior probability we know today as Bayes' Theorem; some think it should be Price's Theorem. He was also an economist (the younger Pitt used his ideas to manage government debt), a dabbler in science (Joseph Priestly and Benjamin Franklin bounced ideas about electricity off him), and he was an ethicist and thinker about individual liberty. Some of his thoughts were incorporated into the American Declaration of Independence. Other friends and correspondents included Adam Smith, John Quincey Adams, and John Howard.

Price was a Fellow of the Royal Society of London, and given the Freedom of the city of London. He was also honoured by Yale University (alongside George Washington), and invited by the young USA to assist in its financial administration. Price was also highly regarded in France, where he was made a Freeman of the city of Paris, and an honorary member of the National Assembly. On his death, France had a day of mourning. Curiously, in Wales, where he was born, he is almost unknown.

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