Turkish Accession

Turkey as a big, poor country will have an important impact on European foreign policy interests give its borders with the Middle East, Caucasus, and the Black sea. The fact that Turkey will become the Eu’s largest member state in population terms soon after accession is one of the biggest impacts of Turkish accession. Turkey’s strategic geographical location, and its large Muslim population also have implications for the Eu. Institutionally, Turkey will have a large impact on the Eu Council and the Eu Parliament. Assuming a double majority system of voting operates in the Council (of countries and population), in an Europe of 28 both Turkey and Germany will have around 14.5% of the vote each. They will be strong players to block proposals joining with a third large country. In terms of seats in the EU parliament, if seats are reallocated proportionately to take account o Turkish as well as Bulgarian and Romanian accession, then Turkey and Germany would both have 82 seats – 11.2% each of the total number.

Since 2001, 8 reform packages have been passed, with the four more major ones under the Erdogan government. The recent constitutional reform package in May 2004 took substantial new steps forward. These reforms have included moves to increase and assert civilian control over the military, establish minority and cultural rights, abolish torture and ill treatment, establish and protect human rights including freedom of expression, association and the media, reform the judiciary, and abolish the death penalty.

Issues considered taboo even 2-3 years ago such as Kurdish rights civilian control of the military and support for a compromise settlement in Cyprus have all now come into the open; and a new generation of NGOs has developed in the last 3 years increasingly consulted on reforms by the government. However, NGOs are concerned at the failure to implement key reform – eg. One NGO reports of 1000 cases of torture in 2003 but notes there has been decrease in the severest forms. Peaceful demonstrations have in a number of cases been attacked by the police. The introduction of Kurdish language education and broadcasting has been inhibited. However there is wide spread support in Turkey both for the political reform and for the accession – with opinion polls show 75% support for joining. There are also opposition including among nationalists of both the right and left and some military sections. Elites including military have been suspicious of the government’s Islamic roots. The ruling AKP Party has support from an emerging conservative middle class, and describes itself as a conservative social party. The wide gap between secular and Islamic debate still is the major issue that divides Turkey. Turkey’s GDP per head is slightly below that of Romania and is only 27% of the European average. Tackling wide spread poverty and regional inequality is probably Turkey’s largest economic challenge for its young population. Ultimately, strong regional inequalities are partly reflecting its marked rural/urban divide, with the poorest regions income per head one fifth of it’s richest.

Hughes, K., Exploring the implications of Turkish accession, A Friends of Europe working paper, 2004

Atila Eralp, Turkey and the enlargement process, ME Technical Univ, Ankara

EU Commission, 2003, regular report on Turkey