Climate Change

Climate change is no longer exclusive franchise of environmental groups since disturbing effects have made it clear that human activity is causing global warming. This is particularly important for the supply and demand in energy industries. However, the thinking that real solution to global warming threatens the survival of the world’s oil and coal industries is changing. The prospect is that broad coalitions of groups are taking initiatives to cooperate politically to devise a global transition to cleaner energy. The coalition will benefit from groups involved in international development and relief, environment, campaign finance reform, corporate accountability, public health, labor, environmental justice, and human rights along with the religious community that became aware of the moral dimensions of the climate crisis.

According to one study, the world needs to be getting half its energy from non-carbon sources by 2018 to avoid a catastrophic buildup of atmospheric carbon later in this century. The main sources of rising carbon dioxide are found in electricity generation, land use chages particularly deforestation – agriculture and transport. But those that are growing fastest are from transport and electricity. Policies such as efficient use of public transport are in the forefront of reducing global warming. Compared with private vehicles, public transportation produces, on average, per passenger mile, 45 percent less carbon dioxide, 95 percent less carbon monoxide, 92 percent fewer volatile organic compounds, and 48 percent less nitrogen oxide. Additionally, according to National Safety Council data, riding the bus is 170 times safer than automobile travel.

Climate changes in common with other environmental problems have costs that are dispersed over the entire globe and their exact nature is uncertain and difficult to measure. Thus there is the issue of international collective action under uncertainty to address broad range including growth and development, industry, innovation and technological change, institutions, the international economy, demography and migration, public finance, information and public economics generally. We must find practical solutions to each of the above issues to match the local needs along with global compromise. This requires clear long term international agreements within which governments as well as markets can function effectively toward the goal for making changes. There is much learning to be done about both the science and the economics of climate change.

WATER SCARCITY

Impacts of climate change are proved to be significant on water resources, food, health, natural disasters and political stability. Sudden climate change without planned adaptation could have severe effects on political stability. For instance, declines in food and water security could result in substantial numbers of environmental refugees and internally displaced persons. The 20th Century’s 10 warmest years have occurred within the last 15 years. 1998 was the warmest year on record – ever. Developing countries in equatorial regions have suffered the most due to both the severity of environmental changes as well as low level of resilience and economic resources. Urban dwellers adapt more easily to a changing climate than farmers living in remote rural areas. Climate change will alter the distribution and quality of vital natural resources such as fresh water and arable land. Some researchers have speculated that these changes could cause or prolong armed conflict, especially in relation to water in sensitive areas like the Middle East.(1)

The IPPC notes that even ‘small changes in the mean climate or climate variability can produce relatively large changes in the frequency of extreme events’. Disasters can cause life loss, undermine social structures and destroy livelihoods on a large-scale. Just three days of a major cyclone set back the development of the entire coastal region in Orissa by several years, according to the World Bank.

The availability and quality of water resources are likely to be severely affected by climate change. There is predicted to be an increased risk of both drought and floods, with severe consequences for human health and agriculture. The impacts will result from changes in four Factors that have impact on water resources include precipitation, melting glacier, rise of sea level and global warming. The general availability of water is affected by the increased energy in the climate system which is likely to make periods of intense rainfall more frequent. This, in turn will increase the frequency and magnitude of flooding in many regions.(2) In Africa’s large river basins total available water has already decreased by 40-60%.(3) Climate change has increased the frequency and magnitude of drought in sub-Saharan Africa which is expected to continue.(4) Africa’s farming which brings employment for 70% of working people is overwhelmingly dependent on rainfall which makes the continent particularly vulnerable to the uncertainties and weather extremes of global warming (Oxfam, 2006).

Climate change increasing stresses in southern and western Africa and the Middle East, whereas it ameliorates stresses in parts of Asia.(5) Global warming effects on melting glaciers also have serious consequences in higher latitude countries. In Peru, for example, glacier coverage has fallen by 25% in the last 30 years, this effect is also happening for China. The scale of rise of sea level on average has reached by 10-20 cm globally over the past 100 years.(6) Consequently, the adaptive strategies on farming and land managing are crucial for future food security in developing countries. Management of pace of adaptability needs for group of countries to act together so that their economies adjust to changes. To address domestic financial pressures, developing countries are increasingly in need of external finance for the investments involved in their contribution to mitigate CO2 emission. Promoting such investments as in agriculture, deforestation, transport and power generation is likely to play a central role for effective response to challenges of climate change. It is crucial to make climate change central in international engagements, while increasing public pressure and education.



Source: CLIMATE CHANGE, The Implications for Oxfam's Programme, Policies and Advocacy, Oxfam, 2000

1) Barnett J (2001) Security and climate change http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/publications/working_papers/wp7.pdf; Purvis N (undated) The security implications of climate change for the UN system UN Global Security http://www.un-globalsecurity.org/pdf/purvis_busby.pdf
2)Milly, P et al (2002), Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate, Nature, Vol.415
3)UNEP (2006) Climate change information kit http://www.unep.org/themes/climatechange/PDF/infokit2003-E.pdf
4)Held, I et al (2005) Simulation of Sahel drought in the 20th and 21st centuries. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 102(50), 17891-17896.
5)Oxfam/NEF (2004) Up in Smoke? Threats from, and responses to, the impact of global warming on human development http://www.neweconomics.org/gen/uploads/
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6)IPCC (2001) Climate Change 2001: Working Group I: The Scientific Basis See http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/408.htm