Oxfam: Climate change is happening now

Climate change is a human problem, affecting people’s rights and justice

Climate change is environmental change, but given that human societies are affected directly and indirectly by the climate system – and given that human activities are driving climate change – it is fundamentally a human problem. Climate change cuts across boundaries. The impacts of climate change are expected to seriously (and disproportionately) affect the livelihoods, health, and educational opportunities of people living in poverty, as well as their chances of survival, both locally in specific areas and globally in general.

As a global environmental challenge, the drivers of which are inextricably linked with high-consumption lifestyles, climate change lies firmly outside the sphere of influence of poor communities and poor countries, who have little say in how the challenge will be addressed. Those with special burdens and/or vulnerabilities such as women, ethnic minorities, and people living with HIV/AIDS are feeling yet another pressure in global warming – one that is fundamentally unjust.

Climate change is happening now; poor people are adapting…

In 1983, Oxfam produced “Weather Alert”, a briefing paper that recorded the human impacts of various climate anomalies affecting our programmes across the globe – before the term “climate change” was even in use! Oxfam staff and partners working in both emergency and development contexts are now reporting an increase in climate-related anomalies – melting glaciers in Tajikistan; extended droughts and climate variability across Africa; flooding in South Asia – and are concerned about the increasing burden that climate-related disasters present to Oxfam and the wider international humanitarian relief community. A research initiative focusing on climate impacts and community responses in Southern Africa that Oxfam partnered with in 2002 (the ADAPTIVE project) confirms that:

Climate change is happening now – Though it often is discussed as a phenomenon whose impacts will be felt far in the future, major shifts in climate variability are already in progress.
People living in poverty are adapting to the effects of climate change – Some strategies are more effective than others, and some communities are better able to move beyond coping to adapt and change their livelihoods strategies, but in general the strategies of people living in poverty need to be understood and supported by those seeking to help.
Climate change represents a serious threat to poor people and Oxfam’s mission

Oxfam discussed the special threat that climate change poses to people living in poverty in 1992, when climate change first became headline news as a result of the UN Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro. Since then, Oxfam has been monitoring the science and politics of climate change, as well as the extent to which it is impacting on the lives of poor people around the world. Given the failure of the international community to seriously and fully address the causes and consequences of climate change, Oxfam is now concerned that it poses a major threat to lives and livelihoods of people living in poverty. It also threatens to undermine recent progress on poverty reduction in many countries, let alone reaching the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). (see Tiempo, issue 54 for further reading.)

For these reasons, Oxfam has joined together with a coalition of UK-based organisations – the UK Working Group on Climate Change and Development – to help raise awareness and explore the linkages between climate change and poverty (read our reports: Up in Smoke? and Africa up in smoke). We have also joined the Stop Climate Chaos campaigning coalition.

Oxfam recognises the threat that climate change poses as well as the inequitable burden that poor communities and countries are already bearing. In response, Oxfam is actively developing its analysis and understanding to support changes in three areas:

Relief: Consistent with its humanitarian mandate, Oxfam needs to ensure that increasing numbers of people living in poverty who are harmed by climate-related disasters have equitable and efficient access to relief; given the ethical dimensions of global climate change, the justification for such relief includes issues of justice as well as standard humanitarian principles of humanity, neutrality, and impartiality.
Preparedness and adaptation: Many poor communities need support both to protect their lives and livelihoods from climate-related shocks and stresses, and to pro-actively adapt their livelihood strategies to the changing environmental conditions global warming brings. This requires additional funding through national and international frameworks as well as changes in the ways funds are used to ensure that poor people get the resources they’re entitled to and have a say in how they’re used.
Mitigation: Consistent with Oxfam’s Approach, which includes tackling root causes of poverty, we support calls for strong political action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in order to prevent dangerous climate change. Oxfam also is committed to monitoring and reducing emissions associated with its own operations, including energy use and air travel.

Poverty and Conflict

Civil Unrest and Conflicts

The fact that there is a strong link between poverty and armed conflict is indisputable. Half of the states experiencing such conflicts since 1989 fall in the bottom quartile of the countries included in the UNDP‘s HDI. The key economic characteristics that these countries share include: low levels of income per head, and high unemployment and/or underemployment levels. Not surprisingly in most of them over 40 or even 50 percent of the population is ranked as poor. As a result, their levels of literacy, education enrolment ratios, health standards and life expectancy are well below those in high or even medium income countries – making it extremely difficult for those living under these conditions to escape the poverty trap through their own efforts. Yet links between conflict and poverty are not as simple as it appears. Not every poor country experiences civil conflicts. None of this cause civil unrest and conflict If the general feeling is that the burden of low development is shared fairly, that there is a steady improvement in the country’s economic performance which is benefiting all, and that those caught in the poverty trap can expect with confidence that they will be able to escape from it in the foreseeable future.

The problem is that in many low income countries none o these conditions is satisfied. Income inequality has increased over the last thirty years globally. To t the extent that governments have become either unable or unwilling to compensate for this through income transfers, this means that the inequality of opportunity and outcome has also gone up both within and between countries. No wonder that the feeling of economic insecurity has increased internationally, particularly among low income countries. People feel less prosperous, and generally less optimistic about the future. The pessimism about their own and world future is now shared also by the majority of those living in highly industrialized, prosperous countries. If nothing is done people especially inhabitants of the poorest countries, can easily become caught in the vicious circle of impoverishment, despair and hate.

The low level of development limiting the capacity of the country to produce the required products to satisfy the needs and aspirations of its population, consequently, employment opportunities are become limited so that unemployment, actual and disguised, is invariably high. Unemployment reduces income of those directly affected and through the multiplier effect of the country as a whole. An already low level of economic welfare then increases insecurity and growing dissatisfaction with the existing order. Political instability and the risk of conflict increase. This encourages emigration of highly skilled and educated labor, therefore the vicious circle of poverty and stagnation continues, and with it the likelihood of conflict.

The ease with which despair and violent can be translated into action shows the degree of the country’s social cohesion and the nature of its political institutions. The best way to understand the origin of tensions that may lead to conflict or war is to start with a simple model that eliminates some of the most common causes of social divisions and frictions. A sovereign state will normally be protected against disintegration into a multitude of warring factions if the population is homogeneous and the existing inequalities are not a divisive issue. There is no state imposed discrimination against any section of society. Everyone enjoys the same legal rights, has equal access to state institutions ;and influence on the way they are run. Equally important existing economic inequalities are generally accepted as fair. History shows that even a high degree of demographic and cultural homogeneity may not fully eliminate the possibility of civil unrest and war in conditions of large and widening economic and social inequalities. This may take different forms such as uprisings or revolutions to change the status quo, military coups to protect it. What ever the overall state of the economy, the likelihood of conflict will increase if economic inequalities are the result of discrimination against certain groups of society because of their nationality , race, religion, class or gender. Where this is the case members of the dominant social group invariable ensure that the most attractive and lucrative jobs, including key political offices at all levels are occupied by those who belong to their group.

Again past experience show that even if the ethics of such discrimination could be justified, the longer it persist, the more violent is the eventual civil conflict likely to be. This is particularly true of the coutnriesinwhi9chthe state actually institutionalizes such inequalities. The laws and the coercive power of the state are then used to promote and safeguard the discrimination in favor of a particular group.

Democracy and Accountability

Accountability

The concern with governance and institutions arose amidst world wide interest in democracy and democratization in the wake of the end of the cold war. Good governance is seen not just necessary condition for effective reform but also about new concerns for democratic participation and accountability. But what exactly does the concept of accountability mean? In its most literal sense, the term accountability means little more than the “ability” or the “possibility” that someone or something can be “accounted for” or “counted up”. Under this minimalist understanding, all that the accountability of government would imply is the most basic form of bookkeeping with the possibility of someone who can watch and look through the account if it is asked for. Basic bookkeeping plus checking the accounts are not powerful enough tools and push for good governance. There are suggestions that more than punishment and sanctions are required for accountability, concepts such as answerability and obligation to explain as well as enforcement meaning capacity to impose sanction are needed for efficient and effective governance. It is not enough for bureaucrats to leave their schedules open on their desks so that passersby view their reports or for members of government to communicate fully with each other. For accountability to exist there must also be a vigilant eye that gazes in from the outside. “It implies rights of authority, in that those calling for an account are asserting rights of superior authority over those who are accountable” (Mulgan, 2000:555). According to Mulgan, accountability necessarily implies power. According to classic democratic theory governments are accountable to the people because the citizens are the original power holders who delegate authority temporarily and over certain specific issues to the government.

But “horizontal” accountability relationships, between two actors of equal authority, are also common in all areas of life and politics. There are two broad schools of thought. One current equates accountability with honesty and rule following. Public servants should be evaluated, rewarded and punished based on the extent to which they desist from corrupt and illegal practices. A second current defends the idea that accountability also implies the affirmative task of effective performance and pro-active decision making (Paul, 1992). It is not very helpful for a public servant to follow the rules and not accept bribes if she does not deliver effective policy outcomes.
Passive, unconcerned, too cautious and negative bureaucratic behaviour is recognized by all for its impracticality.

To “be” accountable is to be in motion, not simply sitting in an office “open to criticism”. To “be” accountable is to work with society and accounting agencies to improve government honesty and performance instead of doing one’s best to come up with best answers to hide from inspection. Therefore the motivation for an action or decision and the quality of that action counts. Hence, it is about the state of mind of the individual to be committed and conducive to deliver.

Integrated structures with power concentrated at the top were the ideal type of bureaucracy which dominated the field of public management. Unfortunately, in the contemporary world of “flexible government” the strengthening of the command-and-control functions of government has fallen out of favor with many. However, the improvement of internal auditing, evaluation and surveillance are absolutely central elements of any pro-accountability reform package.

The recent wave of public administration reforms emphasizes both the privatization of public services and the imitation of private sector management techniques by government. The distinction is for government to sell of its monopolies or to run its institutions as a business. Although these look to tap into the energy of society to improve accountability, they have very different logic. While marketization seeks to send sections of the state off to society, social accountability seeks to invite society into the state. Therefore prioritization of consumer choice over citizen’s right to equity is an issue here. As Guy Peters (2001) has pointed out, the New Public Management (NPM) holds within it four different models of government: “Market Government”, “Participative Government”, “Flexible Government” and “Deregulated Government”. There is the danger of the possible loss of strength in the accountability signal when “citizens” are replaced with “consumers”.

One of the most popular pro-accountability reforms in recent years has been the creation of Independent Pro-Accountability Agencies (IPAs) (Ackerman, 2003). IPAs are autonomous public institutions that are responsible for holding government accountable in a specific issue area. Examples include autonomous corruption control bodies, independent electoral institutes, auditing agencies, human rights Ombudsmen, and “Public Prosecutors”. In the last decade there has been a veritable explosion in the creation of such institutions in the developing world. In Latin America, Belize, Brazil, Columbia, Costa Rica, Chile, Peru and Mexico have all created or revived one or more such independent institutions in the last decade. This trend is also present in Asia, Africa, Australia and Eastern Europe. Some recent examples include the new Ombudsmen in Poland (Founded in 1987), the Philippines (Founded 1989) and South Korea (Founded in 1994), the National Counter Corruption Commission in Thailand (Founded in 1998), the Independent Commission Against Corruption in New South Wales, Australia (Founded in 1988), the Public Protector in South Africa (Founded in 1994), and the Inspector-General of Government in Uganda (Founded in 1996) (Pope, 2000). Another indicator of this trend is that over 80 countries currently have a national Ombudsman while only a dozen had one only 20 years ago (Bennett, 1997). However, the performance of IPAs varies widely between countries. Indeed, it would be safe to say that there are as many cases of IPAs that serve to help governments avoid accountability as there are IPAs that successfully strengthen government accountability.

In many countries there is a long tradition of creating new “independent” bureaucracies in response to problems in order to make the government appear as if it were committed to resolving the issue at hand, whether it be corruption, human rights violations, free and fair elections, etc.. Such institutional innovations often successfully deflect criticism from the central bureaucracy, thereby permitting the government to avoid a full reform of the state. The transparency and openness to participation also varies widely between IPAs. For instance, while Ombudsmen tend to be open and to provide much needed information to the public, auditing agencies tend to be much more close lipped.

Research shows that there is a direct relationship between the effectiveness of IPAs and the level and intensity of their interaction with society (O’Donnell, 2002; Ackerman, 2003; Moreno, Crisp & Shugart, 2003; Sadek & Cavalcanti, 2003). Those IPAs that take their role as bridges seriously are the ones that fulfill their mandates more effectively, while those that separate themselves from either the government or society tend to end in isolation and ineffectiveness. Here we see that so called “horizontal” and “vertical” accountability cannot be so easily separated. The strength of government accounting agencies depends on their connection with society at large, which brings us to the notion of social accountability.

Pro-accountability reform is much more effective when societal actors play a central role. Initiatives as different as participatory budgeting, administrative procedures acts, social audits and citizen report cards all involve citizens in the oversight and control of government and therefore can be considered social accountability initiatives. Unfortunately, although society is omnipresent it is often quite dormant and apathetic. Indeed, the capacity of onlookers to not intervene to resolve problems is well known, particularly in highly modernized, urban areas. Examples abound of circles of curious passersby who do little or nothing to help victims of accidents, heart attacks or theft. In addition, civil society is not always as “pure” as it is often made out to be. Any power that is given to society risks being co-opted by powerful interest groups who only look for personal and group benefits.



Social Accountability in the Public Sector, the World Bank, 2005

Oxfam working on Democracy

Georgia: Following the money

To fight poverty in Georgia, it’s necessary to tackle corruption, to make sure that state funding reaches the people who need it most. With support from Oxfam, local groups are keeping a watchful eye on state spending – and already they are feeling the benefits in their villages.

At a kindergarten in western Georgia, 20 children are sitting at blue plastic tables in a newly-refurbished room, warmed by a wood stove in the corner. The recent opening of the kindergarten is one of the achievements of the local budget-monitoring group in Inguri village.

“Parents in this part of the village have been demanding a kindergarten for years,” says economics teacher, Isolda Khalichava, one of the seven members of the group. “We discussed it with the local governor, who agreed to ask for some extra funds in the village budget to renovate the building.” The kindergarten, sited on a disused tea estate, has only one room, but parents were delighted when it finally opened, in October 2005.

In eight villages in Zugdidi district, Oxfam’s partner organisations, the Association of Disabled Women and the Association of Young Economists, are supporting local people to increase the transparency of government budget processes. We are enabling people to claim and use the funding and resources that exist and to which they have a right.

In Inguri village, the group found out that their village budget wasn’t receiving its proper share of taxes paid into the district budget by local businesses. The village budget should receive a percentage, totalling 500 Lari (£150) per month, which could be invested in village amenities. The group has alerted local business and is now monitoring the tax payments.

“Before the group began, we were always asking ourselves: ‘Where do the taxes go?’”, says group member, Rubin Karchava. “Teachers would say: ‘I’m sure there is funding available, but where is it?’. Now, people know how much money is available and what it is spent on.”

The group examines the local budget, and if figures don’t match up, they query them with the village governor. “We also hold village meetings to hear about people’s problems. We act as an information source for the village governor,” explains Isolda.

It hasn’t always been this simple though. “Before, we tried to look at the budget, but the door was closed to us,” says Isolda. ”Now we are a strong force. We did radio shows and produced leaflets about people’s rights to examine the budget, and then our relationship with the local governor began to improve.”

In the beginning, getting communities involved was also a challenge. Nona Kobalia, from the Association of Disabled Women, explains: “We faced sceptics who didn’t believe they could improve things; and others who criticised people for all their problems, but lacked knowledge and concrete evidence about the causes.”

“But in the end, people love their communities and they wanted to see change,” says Nona. “There was a lot of hard work and training, but people began to see small changes – such as getting an amendment in the local budget so that the library could afford newspapers. It doesn’t sound that special, but most people can’t afford to buy papers themselves.

“Many people here are well educated, so they were glad to have a role to play in society. This has built up their self-confidence – and that’s what is really needed at the moment.” The Inguri group has received training in economics and budget processes, how to interact with local government officials, and how to conduct questionnaires in the community. “We feel like we have graduated with second degrees,” smiles Isolda.
The Association of Disabled Women has recently set up a resource centre in the District Hall in Zugdidi, where members of the public can use a computer and the Internet to look up information about budgetary processes. But it’s not just the public who need educating.

“Some of our community groups know more about the budget process than local government officials do!”, says Madonna Kharebava, Head of the Association of Disabled Women. “So we also work with local governors and offer them training. The result of this is that when they are asked to approve the district budget – they are more likely to speak up on behalf of their village.”

Oxfam continues to encourage partnership between communities and the local government. Madonna recalls: “On a live radio debate, one local governor told us, ‘It’s not pleasant when someone is watching in your kitchen.’ I replied: ‘It’s not only your kitchen!’ It is only by changing attitudes like this that we will see a decrease in corruption and poor management in Georgia.”

www.oxfam.org.uk
Democracy and human rights

The Code of Conduct

Principles of Conduct for The International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement and NGOs in Disaster Response Programmes

1: The Humanitarian imperative comes first
The right to receive humanitarian assistance, and to offer it, is a fundamental humanitarian principle which should be enjoyed by all citizens of all countries. As members of the international community, we recognise our obligation to provide humanitarian assistance wherever it is needed. Hence the need for unimpeded access to affected populations, is of fundamental importance in exercising that responsibility. The prime motivation of our response to disaster is to alleviate human suffering amongst those least able to withstand the stress caused by disaster. When we give humanitarian aid it is not a partisan or political act and should not be viewed as such.

2: Aid is given regardless of the race, creed or nationality of the recipients and without adverse distinction of any kind. Aid priorities are calculated on the basis of need alone
Wherever possible, we will base the provision of relief aid upon a thorough assessment of the needs of the disaster victims and the local capacities already in place to meet those needs. Within the entirety of our programmes, we will reflect consideratio ns of proportionality. Human suffering must be alleviated whenever it is found; life is as precious in one part of a country as another. Thus, our provision of aid will reflect the degree of suffering it seeks to alleviate. In implementing this approach, we recognise the crucial role played by women in disaster prone communities and will ensure that this role is supported, not diminished, by our aid programmes. The implementation of such a universal, impartial and independent policy, can only be effective if we and our partners have access to the necessary resources to provide for such equitable relief, and have equal access to all disaster victims.

3: Aid will not be used to further a particular political or religious standpoint
Humanitarian aid will be given according to the need of individuals, families and communities. Not withstanding the right of NGHAs to espouse particular political or religious opinions, we affirm that assistance will not be dependent on the adherence of t he recipients to those opinions. We will not tie the promise, delivery or distribution of assistance to the embracing or acceptance of a particular political or religious creed.

4: We shall endeavour not to act as instruments of government foreign policy
NGHAs are agencies which act independently from governments. We therefore formulate our own policies and implementation strategies and do not seek to implement the policy of any government, except in so far as it coincides with our own independent policy. We will never knowingly - or through negligence - allow ourselves, or our employees, to be used to gather information of a political, military or economically sensitive nature for governments or other bodies that may serve purposes other than those whic h are strictly humanitarian, nor will we act as instruments of foreign policy of donor governments. We will use the assistance we receive to respond to needs and this assistance should not be driven by the need to dispose of donor commodity surpluses, nor by the political interest of any particular donor. We value and promote the voluntary giving of labour and finances by concerned individuals to support our work and recognise the independence of action promoted by such voluntary motivation. In order to p rotect our independence we will seek to avoid dependence upon a single funding source.

5: We shall respect culture and custom
We will endeavour to respect the culture, structures and customs of the communities and countries we are working in.

6: We shall attempt to build disaster response on local capacities
All people and communities - even in disaster - possess capacities as well as vulnerabilities. Where possible, we will strengthen these capacities by employing local staff, purchasing local materials and trading with local companies. Where possible, we wi ll work through local NGHAs as partners in planning and implementation, and co-operate with local government structures where appropriate. We will place a high priority on the proper co-ordination of our emergency responses. This is best done within the countries concerned by those most directly involved in the relief operations, and should include representatives of the relevant UN bodies.

7: Ways shall be found to involve programme beneficiaries in the management of relief aid
Disaster response assistance should never be imposed upon the beneficiaries. Effective relief and lasting rehabilitation can best be achieved where the intended beneficiaries are involved in the design, management and implementation of the assistance prog ramme. We will strive to achieve full community participation in our relief and rehabilitation programmes.

8: Relief aid must strive to reduce future vulnerabilities to disaster as well as meeting basic needs
All relief actions affect the prospects for long term development, either in a positive or a negative fashion. Recognising this, we will strive to implement relief programmes which actively reduce the beneficiaries' vulnerability to future disasters and h elp create sustainable lifestyles. We will pay particular attention to environmental concerns in the design and management of relief programmes. We will also endeavour to minimise the negative impact of humanitarian assistance, seeking to avoid long term beneficiary dependence upon external aid.

9: We hold ourselves accountable to both those we seek to assist and those from whom we accept resources
We often act as an institutional link in the partnership between those who wish to assist and those who need assistance during disasters. We therefore hold ourselves accountable to both constituencies. All our dealings with donors and beneficiaries shall reflect an attitude of openness and transparency. We recognise the need to report on our activities, both from a financial perspective and the perspective of effectiveness. We recognise the obligation to ensure appropriate monitoring of aid distributio ns and to carry out regular assessments of the impact of disaster assistance. We will also seek to report, in an open fashion, upon the impact of our work, and the factors limiting or enhancing that impact. Our programmes will be based upon high standards of professionalism and expertise in order to minimise the wasting of valuable resources.

10: In our information, publicity and advertising activities, we shall recognise disaster victims as dignified humans, not hopeless objects
Respect for the disaster victim as an equal partner in action should never be lost. In our public information we shall portray an objective image of the disaster situation where the capacities and aspirations of disaster victims are highlighted, and not j ust their vulnerabilities and fears. While we will co-operate with the media in order to enhance public response, we will not allow external or internal demands for publicity to take precedence over the principle of maximising overall relief assistance. We will avoid competing with other disaster response agencies for media coverage in situations where such coverage may be to the detriment of the service provided to the beneficiaries or to the security of our staff or the beneficiaries.

http://www.ifrc.org/publicat/conduct/code.asp

Cost of climate change

Our knowledge of the costs of climate change impacts is still poor. The lack of adequate sectoral studies and understanding of local to regional interactions rules out establishing a central estimate of the social cost of carbon SCC with any confidence. Estimates of the SCC are particularly sensitive to the choice of discount rates and the temporal profile of net damages

Significant improvement in estimates of the SCC will require validated assessments at the regional scale of the dynamic of vulnerability and adaptation. Partnerships among researchers and stakeholders in developing countries are essential. The risk matrix of uncertainty in climate and economic value of impacts can be assessed based on evaluation of three sources of uncertainty, related to climate change, valuation of impacts and parameters in the decision framework. Economic valuation becomes increasingly tentative as the impacts move beyond market to non-market sectors, including effects on societies and economies as well as socially contingent feedbacks, such as conflict over water. The relative lack of studies of non-market and socially contingent effects increases uncertainty in estimates of the SCC. Modeling of trends in climate change also handles choices in the decision framework, such as discount rates, equity weighting, and risk ambiguity.

Framing of estimates of the SCC project future climate change and understanding of economic valuation ranging from projections of global and regional temperature, to scenarios of changes in precipitation and risk of storms, to systemic, large scale changes such as collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, shift in ocean circulations, or reversal of the biosphere carbon sink.

While the market effects can be described, the impacts over large areas and time scales are not linear and therefore difficult to value. For example, what would be the value of displacement of all of the major world coastal cities due to a 3-5m sea level rise?
Effects on non-market sectors are more difficult to value in that there are little empirical data on how people in different countries and economic classes value amenities, species, landscapes and other qualities of livelihoods. Contingent valuation based on willingness to pay or willingness to accept give some guidance, but such values are often contentious and may not scale up from local issues to the effects of climate change.

Catastrophic effects that lead to global losses of species are even more difficult to value, not least because the impacts of climate change on global ecosystems and species biodiversity is not well understood. The socially contingent column captures the secondary effects and multiple stresses of climate change across a range of sectors. For instance, it is possible that reasonably small changes in climate change could lead to significant impacts through multipliers such as the effect of water shortages on agriculture, high vulnerabilities such as migration from tropical storm and behavioural responses to the risk such as refuse to invest in agriculture due to perceived increase in drought risk.

The term, social cost of carbon (SCC), generally refers to the marginal cost of climate change impacts. The SCC is usually estimated as the present value of the impact over the next 100 years of one additional ton of carbon emitted to the atmosphere today.

Uncertainties and choices in the evaluation influence the final social cost of carbon. For instance:
• A high economic growth often lead to less vulnerability to climatic risks, at least in the loss of life, as wealthier societies can afford a wider range of adaptation strategies.
• Climate change effects of temperature are included, but quantified impacts of changes of drought over years are not
• Impacts of livelihood are not easily increased in a regional model based on GDP per capita or the share of agriculture in the economy.
• Adaptation over time weakens impacts in many sectors for instance as farmers adjust to new climate; while responses to climate changes could accelerate effective adaptation and lower the costs.
• The choice of valuation methods, for instance willingness to pay or willingness to avoid damages, is at least as important as the major scenario.
• Equity compensates for the different value of marginal impacts to poor people compared to rich people; but it does not account for rights or vulnerability.
• A precautionary approach seeks to avoid damages without offsetting benefits.


Perhaps the most controversial issue to have arisen in the context of estimating the social cost of carbon has been how to aggregate the valuation of impacts across geographical regions that exhibit huge disparities in income. This is important in the context of climate change because a significant proportion of the impacts do not have a market value; therefore, willingness to pay (which is income led) to avoid, or willingness to accept compensation to put up with, the impacts is generally used to proxy their value.

The effect of equity weighting is that it allows welfare equivalents to be compared since a “dollar to a poor man” is worth more than a “dollar to a rich man”. Therefore, it accounts for the fact that if a poor person were to be given an amount of money, then he/she would value that money far more than if it were given to a person who already was very rich. If money is to be used as a proxy for welfare then it is necessary to make assumptions regarding the change in marginal utility when income changes. Studies that simply aggregate impact valuations with no correction for relative incomes are implicitly assuming that the marginal utility of income is the same for everyone. In other words, the additional welfare gained from each additional unit of income received by any individual (irrespective of their state of income) is constant. However, a reasonable economic assumption that is mentioned/advocated in some studies is that the marginal utility of income declines as incomes rise. In other words, the income elasticity of the marginal utility of income is negative.

Our understanding of future climatic risks, trends and surprises in the climate system, exposure to impacts, and adaptive capacity, is improving, but knowledge of the cost of climate change impacts is still poor. A range of experts were asked to provide estimates of the SCC for some 30 prescribed scenarios of climate change, coverage of impacts sectors, and choices (such as discount rate). The experts included well-known advocates for a high SCC as well as for low SCC values. Each expert was asked to rate their confidence in each response. This question was not benchmarked in any way.the interviewer did not prompt the respondent to secure the range. The confidence ratings are subjective. The experts received the results with an opportunity to comment on the conclusions.but this was not an exercise nor was it designed to achieve a consensus among the experts.

Of the nearly 450 scenario-responses, fully 70% had a confidence rating of very low or low. None of the scenarios were judged a confidence of very high and only 3% had a high confidence. The lack of adequate studies of local to regional interactions prevents establishing a central estimate of the social cost of carbon with high confidence.

In a field where estimates are well understood, a probabilistic assessment can be made that produces a central estimate. Examination of the probability distributions for different scenarios and compared for different models then clarifies whether the central estimate is robust. Tol (2004) reviewed published estimates of the SCC. The 103 estimates from 28 published studies were used to calculate the distribution of the SCC.

Tol filtered the estimates using four schemes:
1. The simple average of all of the 103 estimates results in a mean value of the marginal damages of £80/tC, with a standard deviation of £175/tC
2. For studies that report more than one estimate, the authors generally provide a weight for the various estimates.
3. Tol calculated his own weights for each study based on six criteria: whether they had been peer reviewed, were independent impact assessments, had included dynamic climate change scenarios rather than equilibrium responses, used economic scenarios, calculated the marginal damage costs, and the year of publication. This weighting scheme results in a mean estimate of £85/tC, still with a high standard of deviation
4. If only the peer reviewed studies are included, with above weights applied, the estimates are much lower.

Pure Rate of Time Preference
The rate at which individuals discount future consumption, on the assumption of an unchanging level of consumption per capita over time, is called the Pure Rate of Time Preference (PRTP). The Green Book suggests a PRTP of around 1.5 per cent a year for the near future. If per capita consumption is expected to grow over time, future consumption will be plentiful relative to the present and thus have lower marginal utility.

Tol emphasises the discount rate and aggregation across countries as the two most significant factors explaining the range of results. However, it is likely that these are only two of the most salient differences recorded in the studies, and further uncertainties may be important.


What do we know about the decomposition of the estimates to the sectoral and regional level?
None of the methods provide sufficient disaggregation to analyse our confidence in the SCC estimates. Five concerns are apparent in the analysis of the disaggregated results:

- regional and sectoral balance of impacts,
- regional validation,
- independence of the sectoral damages,
- aggregating damages and distribution of winners and losers, and other constraints on impacts.

Regions with net costs near 0 including the Middle East, and small island states, are likely to have significant impacts in some sectors. Some justification can be made for treating a country or regional economy as one unit., to the extent that trade-offs between winners and losers within an economy can be addressed by specific policies. Even so, the balance of effects between one sector and another may be difficult to accommodate. For example, reduced heating costs will benefit northern Europe while increased cost of air conditioning and cooling will be significant in southern Europe. And, reduced heating costs might not compensate for loss of land and species due to sea level rise. The sectors where damages are significant may be a primary concern for decision makers.

A conclusion from this analysis is that regional-sectoral estimates of the SCC are not well validated, and those produced from global models should not be taken as reliable regional or sectoral estimates. This does not necessarily lead to the conclusion that existing global estimates of the SCC are unrealistic. The model results presented here are based on multiple runs using a range of input. To some extent, the uncertainty at the region-sector level should be reduced in aggregating to the global level.a specific region-sector may have a low estimate in one run and a high estimate in another run. This reinforces the need to understand the sources of uncertainty in the SCC and to evaluate the estimates in an explicit risk framework. The regional sectoral validation remains a high priority if better estimates of the SCC are to be developed and used.


SEI Oxford Univ, Social Cost of Carbon: A Closer Look at Uncertainty, 2006
Estimating Social Cost of Carbon Emission; Government Economic Service Working Paper 140,DEFRA, 2005

Land confiscation

Date: 16/07/2000

From: Ministry of Agriculture
The Land Affairs of Tehran Province
City of Savajbolagh in Karadj

To: Transaction Dept

Reference is made to the letter 1368 dated 9/7/2000, with regard to the fact that Ms the widow of … is the proprietor of two pieces of land (1549 mm each), and further consultation with respectable local Jurisprudent and highlights on the special condition of the proprietor ???? – this is to endorse deed of ownership and the right to transaction, in response to the inquiry made by Notary No 338, on the land, the piece Number (…) from the main …..

Notes: Furthermore, get a hand written signed document from the proprietor that she ceases any further claim on her other piece of land No. sub (…..) from the main …..

Signed
Manager of Land Affairs
Karadj Province




From; Agricultural Crusade Org of Tehran Province – Savejbolagh


Date : 06/07/2004
No: 104/5032

With reference to the enquiry No 1071 and 1070 dated 23/06/2004 for transactions on two pieces of lands No…. and… from the main ……, this is to confirm that according to the Land Act endorsed by the Parliament on 22/12/1986, the above mentioned land is recognized as unusable and is confiscated by the Islamic Republic of Iran. Therefore any transaction on this land is illegal.

The Manager of Agricultural Crusade
City of Savejbolagh

Poverty Measurements

(paper for EBSW)

The aim is to enhance knowledge and skills in measuring many dimensions of poverty and deprivation. Poverty, the core subject of my studies, is defined as lack of opportunities to satisfy basic needs and avoid deprivation of some minimal economic capabilities and elementary social abilities (Sen-Foster, and Townsend) increasingly acknowledged as being multidimensional. For some needs like food the main satisfiers are objects such as food stuff. For emotional needs in contrast the central satisfiers are human relations, while for growth needs, particularly for esteem and self actualization needs, satisfaction derives mainly from the subject’s activity itself.

The interaction between needs, satisfiers of needs and resources will show how conventional approaches reduce all of basic needs drastically, so that the resulting conception is one where human beings have only material needs which are satisfied only with objects. The most fruitful approach to the standard of living however is about human flourishing. Therefore need satisfaction has to include the development of needs and the development and application of human capacities and well being. Therefore objects, relations and activities are general classifications of the satisfiers of human needs. But in this category outstanding role of activities is immediately associated with human capacities, as in every human activity human capacities are deployed. Human development is basically the development of human capacities, but these cannot be separated from needs.

In conventional approaches to poverty time, knowledge and abilities are the resources which are usually ignored. The three are required to promote personal relations, to carry out personal activities which sustain self esteem and educational development. Townsend replaces satisfaction of needs with participation in the ordinary patterns of life, customs and activities. In his definition, Townsend includes as part of the ordinary patterns of life: types of diet, conditions of life and facilities which together with customs and activities, constitute basic grounds in which one has to participate in order not to be poor.

There is no reason to limit a concept and even measurement of poverty and vulnerability to income, consumption or other money metric dimensions only, even when using quantitative means. Other dimensions of poverty, such as related to educational opportunities, mortality, nutrition and health are of great concern but broader dimensions, such as exclusion, the experience of poverty and sufferings from humility, the esteem needs, the need for dignity, the need to participate and belonging as defined by Maslow in addition to factors of bad governance, bad debts, overpopulated or remote surroundings, identity based frustration and isolation are important dimensions to consider as well.

Assessment data is meaningless without subsequent analysis of the information and the setting of priorities. Compiling a problem tree may allow a closer examination of the causes of problems and possible solutions and help to focus on the most significant risk factors. A problem tree is formed by outlining problems and for each problem asking the question ‘why’. By continually asking ‘why’, the root causes of problems may be discovered and priorities for intervention thus become clearer. In carrying out assessments and organising programmes the structure, procedures and capacity to capitalise on previous experience can really improve intervention each time. It is important to assess what did or didn’t work well last time and why, and how we can learn from that.

Two basic points of entry for intervention are access to health and education. In many communities there are considerable possibilities for the health sector to interact with social development. However such programmes have been initiated rather infrequently and rarely evaluated. With increasing numbers of communities now looking toward their own activities for improving health rather than relying on governments there are considerable opportunities for evaluating the impact of programmes which enhance analysis, planning and action by communities themselves. Whereas there is a strong knowledge base on how to enhance participation within other sectors such as agriculture and rural livelihoods, there is little documentation of its impact on health.

Communities are units of conflicts and co-operations which in economic terms is a framework to distinguish three levels, from assets, over incomes generated from these assets to outcomes and capabilities. Households and individuals have assets, such as labour, human capital, physical capital, social capital, commons and public goods at their disposal to make a living. Assets are used to generate income in various forms, including earnings and returns to assets, sale of assets, transfers and remittances. Households actively build up assets, not just physical capital but also social or human capital, as an alternative to spending.

Incomes provide access to dimensions of well-being: consumption, nutrition, health, etc., mediated by information, markets, public services and non- market institutions. Generating incomes from assets is also constrained by information, the functioning of markets and access to them, the functioning of non-market institutions, public service provision and public policy. Poor households are seen in this framework severely constrained in their options by their assets and the conditions they face.

At present there is a shift in emphasis, with a greater proportion of projects investigating barriers to infrastructure provision, maintenance and access, with a particular focus on sustainable solutions and pro-poor ‘livelihoods’ approaches and participatory involvement in projects. Working with local partners facilitates access to local communities, understanding specific vulnerabilities and building trust amongst project participants. Studies are focused on technical, managerial and policy solutions in the infrastructure and urban development sectors that enable poor people to escape from poverty on a sustainable basis.

Infrastructure is found to be the key to achieving the central MDG of halving poverty by 2015. There is emphasise on the importance of an ‘innovation’ approach rather than a more narrowly focused ‘research’ approach. This emphasis has arisen out of awareness that overcoming gaps in knowledge is not, in and of itself, sufficient to ensure a positive pro-poor outcome from programmes. This generic guidance has been effective in helping to shift the focus over time away from primarily ‘engineering’ solutions developed at arms length from potential users, to a far more participatory, action research and innovation centered approach. It has also been helpful in ensuring that projects cover more than one (and ideally all) of the key stages of the knowledge process – ranging from identification of needs, the research and development of one or more viable solutions, the production of outputs and transfer of results, commercialisation or policy implementation and uptake pathways.

Improved infrastructural services can bring immediate benefits in terms of helping poor people to meet their basic needs for safe drinking water, secure shelter, energy, transport, and so on. While research confirms the importance of infrastructure service provision to sustainable development, investment in infrastructure has not always contributed to pro-poor growth. Inadequate attention to governance and institutional frameworks, high levels of personal and political corruption, and weak systems have resulted in a situation where the benefits have often been less than anticipated, and too often there have been negative rather than positive consequences for poor people.

Despite these negative experiences with infrastructure investment, it is hard to imagine how any country could escape from poverty whilst its people lack proper access to basic services such as water, energy and transport. Therefore interventions should revolve around developing an improved understanding of the technological, economic, social and institutional problems associated with the provision of infrastructure

Innovation policy makers have tended to move away from instruments that give money to single actors and increasingly invest in partnerships and, more recently, innovation networks. The idea is to secure the needed coupling between push and pull, to strengthen the network relationships that help innovation and to support the growth of absorptive capacity.

The recent House of Commons Select Committee report on the use of science in UK development policy stresses the importance of science for development, the need for DFID to strengthen its policies and its personnel in this important area, to increase the involvement of beneficiary countries in developing its research strategy and the need to evaluate the outcomes of research.

There is also concern about the guides on dissemination and communication, which while of a good quality and utility, do not help much to overcome the key barriers identified. The barriers to information dissemination, lack of resources, and lack of attention to real needs are not easy to overcome, but their resolution certainly requires more than improved information management and dissemination organised at the UK end of things. Reviews of the literature and experience suggest that research is more likely to be taken up into policy in international development if research programmes develop a detailed understanding of the policymaking process and the key influencing factors, and their relation. Also the nature of the evidence whether it is credible, practical and operationally useful, and see who else can contribute.

Development actors’ terms of reference include assessments, design and implement the programme, and coordinate work with other organisations. Another part of the role is to recruit and train local people so they can take over after you have gone. It's also really important to maintain the dignity of people. For women in particular provide certain privacy. Ultimately what should be achieved is to put households in charge of their life. This is the basis for developing an overall strategy and practical activities for ensuring that the programmes maximise their chances of policy influence.


Sources:

www.Oxfam.org.uk
www.dfid.gov.uk
Ringen, S., Seminar Current poverty approaches, A Critical View, Oxford Univ., June 2005
Dercon,S.,Vulnerability to Poverty: A Framework for Policy Analysis, 2001
http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/members/stefan.dercon/

POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC CHALLENGES AND CONFLICTS

Frozen conflict leaves a negative imprint on the economic development of the conflict regions of Georgia and hampers regional cooperation in South Caucasus. The border areas are especially volatile, since conflicts result in a temporary decline of the central legal authority; and as for the existing authorities in conflict zones, they are either unable or unwilling to eradicate illegal activities. The political, security and development challenges caused both internally and externally by these conflicts can be effectively addressed through the advancement of democracy. In a partnership between civil society and government, by strengthening the rule of law and ensuring human rights, by macroeconomic stabilization, far-reaching economic reforms and a more extensive programme of privatization, Georgia can become an attractive environment for living and doing business.

Establishing peace and order is a prerequisite for transforming the confrontational environment – It will also contribute to the creation of the necessary security conditions for the return of IDPs and refugees. The need for such measures has been highlighted by recent events in the Tskhinvali region. Economic cooperation, demilitarization and decriminalization should go hand in hand with confidence-building measures, including the implementation of joint economic projects. These projects, involving populations in conflict zones as well as returned IDPs, will have manifold effects, such as the restoration of the economy in conflict zones, and the encouragement of human contact through joint business activities, thus facilitating conciliation.

The legalization of the Georgian-Russian conflict has the highest priority. If Georgian-Russian relations are not legalized as being an inter-state conflict, the situation will move forward in the same way as previously with the same results as before. If carried to its logical conclusion, this scenario would ultimately lead to Russia becoming a party to the conflict. Because of this, Russia would not be able to have the status of a mediator in these conflicts. It is indeed a paradox that one side is both a party to the conflict and a mediator. Many experts have drawn attention to this fact but it has not been registered in any documents. the international community, and whoever would like to see an end of these conflicts, must first and foremost assess them accurately. When it comes to accurate assessment, many international organizations, intellectual groups, analytical groups and other experts have examined the conflict, but there is not one common international assessment of its nature and components.

So, at an international level, a lot of money and resources is invested in a process that has not been adequately analysed. Very often, existing conflicts are named ethnic conflicts and people understand them as such. For example, Georgians and Ossetians are thought of as two distinct ethnicities. This is a completely inadequate understanding. Ossetian society, as found in the Caucasus, is divided into many parts, which have different features. Generalization of these conflicts as ethnic conflicts is a serious mistake which, at a later stage, will result in inadequate formulations in discussions and negotiations. For example, the Georgian Ossetian conflict is sometimes characterized as consisting of four subjects: the central Georgian government, the South Ossetian separatists, representatives of North Ossetia, and Russia. This format of 3+1 creates an inadequate picture.

To correct this faulty perception is to take a specific example, the area of the Tskhivalsky region is inhabited by two main ethnicities: Ethnic Ossetians and Georgians. There is another important group there, the mixed families, which are often not taken into account as subjects in these conflicts. When some groups in negotiations are represented and not others, it is a breach of democratic principles, and therefore entire social groups are being discriminated against.

The same situation is true of the territory of Abkhazia. One of the main problems in this region is the legitimacy of the rulers. The problem concerns not only the government of the unrecognized entities, but also every other society and state that strives to legitimize its political regimes. One of the main political challenges nowadays is the creation of legitimate regimes in the whole of the region of the South Caucasus, especially the conflict zones. What does it mean legitimate powers? it means powers that represent the interests of all the groups that exist in the conflict zones. It should be pointed out again that most of these groups are discriminated against,

One of the routes through which conflicts have their impact on political development are the security services and channels. In this regard, Russia’s influence in the region is conditioned by military and security dimensions. Via this route the Russians maintain their influence on new democracies restarting their democratic development.

Other route of conflict is the political agenda. The linkage between these two factors – namely, the political agenda, which is dictated by the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and the security forces – is lent support by a recent statement made by Aleksandr Litvinenko, the former KGB official, that these terrorist acts were organized by the Russian security services in order to prevent the ongoing resolution of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict during the November 1999 Istanbul Summit of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). So these channels act together. The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict clearly dictates the political agenda; and of course Nagorno-Karabakh is now the main issue to discuss during these power changes. The engagement of the security services in both cases is obvious. Two revolutions from the top were about the NKR issue, about how to serve and preserve Nagorno-Karabakh. But unfortunately they were legitimated by the so-called elections, and resulted in the ligitimation of the power branches and the weakening of democratic institutions. Thus both Heydar Aliyev and Robert Kocharyan became presidents with a majority of the so-called popular vote. It is very comfortable to manipulate the masses of troubled people, who do not know what happens in reality.

To be objective all foreign political events in Armenia are in some way or other connected with the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Both the government and the opposition regard this conflict either as a reason for all things going wrong in the country or as a weapon in an internal political fight. Despite this, both sides understand, but for some unexplained reason choose not mention, the certain truth that without consolidation of the whole of society and the coordination of both the government and the opposition, it is impossible to resolve the conflict. There is no constructive dialogue between the government and the opposition, nor is there any planning. All proposals to start a dialogue and have a national agreement, in the interest of national aims, have a more declamatory character.

It is interesting to consider the population of the country. These are the potential voters, and in the majority they are apathetic. They look at these political events with no interest. At best, only extravagant activities on the part of pseudo-politicians and members of parliament from time to time arouse their interest and gain popularity because of the show. But in my view there is no point in waiting for elections in order to make a proposal for conflict resolution, because I don’t think anyone -- either from Azerbaijan’s or from Armenia’s side -- would want to risk taking any steps at such a time. However, future elections have mobilized society. There can be many reasons for this. There is an increased interest in the creation of political unions, organizations, groups. These bodies prepare for elections. We have several blocs. and all of them voice criticisms -- but they could not create one programme for action. Their political platforms are so similar that even experts are not always able to distinguish between them, not to mention the population at large. In conclusion, I think a similar situation exists in other Caucasian states, and it all boils down to a banal fight for the highest office.

There is a need to approach with the thought about how much in South Caucasus’s interest it is to resolve the conflicts. The conflict resolution perspective and the future of the South Caucasus should have more priority than all small national interests. It is interesting to speculate about how probable it is that what happened in Georgia and Ukraine will be repeated in Azerbaijan.

There is always awareness that, at least in Armenia, the government came to power because of Nagorno-Karabakh’s problem, and that any change in the situation will threaten the government positions. What should be done? three or four public opinion surveys was organized and the question to Armenians was: “What do you think is the main achievement of the Armenian government in recent years?” The answers came back that other than the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh, there are no achievements, not even democratic institutions or effective governance. When we asked: “What was the price for all that?” most answered that they had paid too much for it. So now people’s perception of the conflict is totally different. They think that any changes that take place will not be in the interest of peace.

All democracy rhetoric must be backed up by facts. We can talk however much about democracy, but in reality it will come only when society is ready for it. To conclude, power is a very sweet thing. As a famous English historian put it: “Power corrupts; absolute power corrupts absolutely.” So it does not matter who comes to power; what is important is to know why they came to it. Then we can count on some changes and reforms.



Extracts:
Conflicts in the South Caucasus: Political, Security and Development Challenges, Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies; Chatham House, July 2005
Opening Remarks:
- Zurab Noghaideli, Prime Minister of Georgia
- Alexander Russetsky, Director, The South Caucasus Institute of Regional Security

Corporate pollution

According to new figures which reveal heavy industry's contribution to climate change and have prompted new calls for tighter restrictions on corporate pollution, all the efforts by individuals and households to cut their carbon footprints will make little difference unless accompanied by greater action by industry. A 1% increase in the efficiency of one of the giant power station in Britain would save the typical carbon emissions of 21,000 households. Five biggest polluters in UK produce more CO2 than all motorists combined.
The carbon dioxide emissions of more than 700 industrial sites across Britain showed the UK's participation in the first phase of a Europe-wide scheme intended to tackle climate change by capping the amount of carbon the heaviest polluters can emit. Companies failing to hit a target - applying to emissions from onsite activities such as combustion only - must buy permits to pollute from rivals that have successfully cut emissions. Critics said the first phase of the trading scheme has made global warming worse by giving European companies more permits than needed. Hundreds of companies are excluded from the scheme - because they are not classed as big polluters or because they participate in a parallel system.
With 12 million Africans currently facing drought and famine linked to climate it is time to listen to what people from the poorest continent are asking for. The global account so far shows that 33% of people have 94% of the global dollar income and account for 90% of the global historical total of greenhouse gas emissions, while the other 66% of people have 6% of global dollar income and a history of emissions totalling 10%. The ratio of poor to rich life value in all this is worse than 15 to one. The rising climate-related mortality has led UK MPs to observe that this asymmetry, if uncorrected, becomes the economics of genocide.

Emitting 100,000 tonnes of CO2 is more than that of Vanuatu, the Pacific state where 100 people became the first official climate refugees when they were moved from their coastal village in December. The test of 'green-ness' is about how much industries have succeeded to be changing.

Elsewhere, the questions regarding potential future flashpoints were raised as: what are the places particularly likely to experience conflict related to climate change? Is it even possible to predict the occurrence of such conflict? Suggestions were that trans-boundary rivers and areas very near sea level are likely to be especially problematic, for in those cases climate change is likely to have a particularly strong impact - in some instances small states could entirely disappear due to the rise in sea level. In turn, such changes could trigger economic, social and political instability. These observations prompt further questions about potential differences between, on the one hand, the effects of climate change on rich countries, and, on the other hand, the impact on poor countries. while developed countries could also suffer very severely as a result of climatic perturbations, the poor, developing countries-with far more limited resources--would probably find it even more difficult to cope with the consequences of climate change. The impact of climate change will land hardest on the poor.
In some developing countries already radicalised populations could see climate change as a problem unfairly imposed on them which could make it more likely for some of those individuals and groups to support, or even engage in terrorism against Western targets, which would have adverse consequences for international stability. Using the example of Central Asia in some areas, potential political instability due to climate change could also affect short-term or even long-term migration, and could accentuate poverty, thereby giving rise to complex security problems that would be very hard to solve.

The explanation for massive climate changes can be found in the oceans' reactions to rapid and massive influxes of cold fresh water from lakes. Another question arises on what is the proper balance between seeking to mitigate the effects of climate change, and adapting to those effects? It is argued that while efforts at mitigation must continue, it is also necessary to recognise that a certain degree of global warming has now become inevitable. Under these circumstances it is important to learn to adapt to that change. There are difficulties of providing policy advice in this area, in a situation in which climate change is non-linear and abrupt, making prediction impossible. Linked to that, it is noted that not only climate change per se, but also disagreements over the importance, source, and best ways to address climatic perturbations could act as triggers for international conflict.


Extracts:



Guardian, David Adam and Rob Evans, New figures reveal scale of industry's impact on climate, May 16, 2006

BBC, The Green Room, The fair choice for climate change, Aubrey Meyer, 18 May 2006

Harrison, S., Oxford Leverhulme Programme on the Changing Character of War, May 2006

Polluters

Stark warning over climate change


Rising concentrations of greenhouse gases may have more serious impacts than previously believed, a major scientific report has said.
The report, published by the UK government, says there is only a small chance of greenhouse gas emissions being kept below "dangerous" levels.
It fears the Greenland ice sheet is likely to melt, leading sea levels to rise by 7m (23ft) over 1,000 years.
Vulnerable ecosystems
The report sets out the effects of various levels of temperature increase.
The European Union (EU) has adopted a target of preventing a rise in global average temperature of more than two degrees Celsius.
But that, according to the report, might be too high, with two degrees perhaps enough to trigger melting of the Greenland ice sheet.
This would have a major impact on sea levels globally, though it would take up to 1,000 years to see the full predicted rise of 7m.
Above two degrees, says the report, the risks increase "very substantially", with "potentially large numbers of extinctions" and "major increases in hunger and water shortage risks... particularly in developing countries".
'Without delight'
The report asked scientists to calculate which greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere would be enough to cause these "dangerous" temperature increases.
No country is going to turn off a power station which is providing much-desired energy for its population to tackle this problem
Sir David King

Currently, the atmosphere contains about 380 parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas of concern, compared to levels before the industrial revolution of about 275ppm.
To have a good chance of achieving the EU's two-degree target, levels should be stabilised at 450ppm or below, the report concludes.
But, speaking on Today, the UK government's chief scientific adviser, Sir David King, said that was unlikely to happen.
"We're going to be at 400 ppm in 10 years' time, I predict that without any delight in saying it," he said.
"But no country is going to turn off a power station which is providing much-desired energy for its population to tackle this problem - we have to accept that.
"To aim for 450 (ppm) would, I am afraid, seem unfeasible."
But Myles Allen, a lecturer on atmospheric physics at Oxford University, said assessing a "safe level" of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was "a bit like asking a doctor what's a safe number of cigarettes to smoke per day".
"There isn't one, but at the same time people do smoke and live until they're 90," he told Today.
On the other question asked at the 2005 conference - what are the options for avoiding dangerous concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere? - the report says that technological options to reduce emissions do exist.
It concludes that the biggest obstacles to the take up of technologies such as renewable sources of energy and "clean coal" lie in vested interests, cultural barriers to change and simple lack of awareness.

By Richard Black , Environment Correspondent, BBC News website

one study looked at the full impact of vehicles, concluded that the extraction of the raw materials for each car alone produced 25 tonnes of waste and 922m cubic metres of "polluted air". This compared with 2,040m cubic metres of polluted air for the full life-cycle of the vehicle, meaning that the manufacturing stage was roughly responsible for 45%. Another study found that cars were 7% lighter in 2004 because more aluminium and less steel is used in cars today which result in less fuel consumption.

Oxfam: Health and Education

Oxfam campaigns for increased aid and debt relief for developing countries as a means for them to help pay for health, education and other key services for poor people.

For example, Oxfam's education campaign has been running since 1999, campaigning for the abolition of school fees and for more aid. In recent years a number of countries including Uganda and Kenya have abolished their school fees - seeing children flood back into school as a result.

Meanwhile donors such as the UK government have substantially increased their aid for education. Oxfam's work on debt relief, supporting Jubilee 2000 and the groups that have developed from it, has helped ensure debt relief is spent on poverty reduction. Oxfam continues to challenge rich countries to drop the debt of developing countries.

All this effort can be seen as part of a wider ambition to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) a set of goals agreed by world leaders in 2000 to halve poverty and ensure more poor people have access to education and health care, live in a cleaner environment and can exercise their rights. Oxfam is working to promote the MDGs and ensure they are a reality for the poorest people in the world - this requires more aid and debt relief, and a real commitment from developing countries to achieve these goals.

www.oxfam.org.uk

Qualitative Research Initiative

Areas of activities:
Consultancy
Advice on survey design
Discussion-guide design
Recruitment/Moderation
Transcriptions
Analysis & interpretation
Specialist viewing
Areas of concerns

- understanding the needs of the project
- adding value at all stages of the research process from input on project specification to questionnaire design to analytical options to data interpretation
- focus on analysis rather than reportage of facts and figures
- provide guidance and recommendations on the implications of the research
- reasonable expectations in terms of what can be achieved and within what timeframe
- reports and presentations to be concise, incisive and focused on clearly communicating what is actionable for future tactical and strategic planning

Research techniques:

Focus groups
Depth interviews (face-to-face/via telephone)
On-site mini-depths
Accompanied shops/ visits
Advertising evaluation
Citizens Juries
Home Visits
Mystery Shopping
National and International research
New Store Concept evaluation
Projective Techniques
Web surfs/ accompanied surfs
Workshops


Statistical Techniques:


CORRELATION ANALYSIS

What is correlation analysis?
Correlation analysis technique that looks at the indirect relationships in survey data
When would you use it?
To objectively establish which variables are most closely associated with a given action or mindset
What are the advantages?
It can provide a more discriminatory analysis than asking a direct question
Any disadvantages?
Has potential shortcomings when dealing with mixed scales
Anyone who has ever carried out a survey in which they ask respondents to rate the importance of various aspects of a product or service invariably finds that most people say everything is very important. What this disguises is that while respondents say everything is very important, in reality some things are more important to them than others.
This is where correlation analysis comes into play as it looks at the indirect relationships between variables and can help in objectively assessing the extent to which one variable really influences another.
The starting point for correlation analysis is to identify a ‘dependent variable’ – for example, overall satisfaction – and then to see to what extent the responses given to each of the variables correlates to the responses given to overall satisfaction. This analysis takes place at respondent level and enables us to establish, for each aspect, how closely related it is to the dependent variable – this is measured by the co-efficient of correlation.
The correlation co-efficient is usually scored between 0 and 1; a score of 1 would mean there was complete correlation between responses, a score of 0 would mean there was none. The higher the co-efficient, the greater the correlation.

Regression/Multiple Regression
What is regression analysis?
Regression is a technique used to predict the value of one variable based on results of one or more other variables
When would you use it?
To work out the simultaneous impact of more than one variable at a time
What are the advantages?
Allows you to work out ‘what if …’ scenarios
Any disadvantages?
Good predictive powers cannot be guaranteed. Intercorrelation of data can mean that not all variables are included in the regression model. Works best with binary variables (i.e. ‘yes’ / ‘no’ responses)
Regression analysis is used to help us predict the value of one variable from one or more other variables whose values can be predetermined.
The first stage of the process is to identify the variable we want to predict (the dependent variable) and to then carry out multiple regression analysis focusing on the variable(s) we want to use as predictors (explanatory variables). For example, the dependent variable might be overall satisfaction, the explanatory variables price, quality, value for money, delivery time and staff knowledge.
The multiple regression analysis would then identify the relationship between the dependent variable and the explanatory variables – this is presented as a model (formula) that might look like this:
Overall satisfaction =
1.37 x price rating + 0.91 x quality rating + 0.64 delivery time rating
+ 2.42 (a constant)
Invariably not all of the possible explanatory variables are included in the model due to inter-correlation between them: for example, the ratings that people give on price and value for money may be very closely correlated and are therefore not both required in the formula.
The overall predictive powers of the model can be calculated and expressed as the co-efficient of determination R2 (= the explained variation / total variation). The co-efficient of determination will lie between 0 and 1: 1 would mean that it is able to explain 100% of the variation although a figure of less than 50% is more common.

FACTOR ANALYSIS

Factor analysis is all about reduction. Simply put it reduces a large number of variables to a smaller number of variables.
Factor analysis does this by looking at the relationships (i.e. correlations) between the responses to each of the larger number of variables and grouping them together in combinations of variables that are closely correlated (i.e. they ‘behave’ in similar ways).
Factor analysis is extremely useful where you are dealing with a very large number of variables that would be cumbersome, time-consuming or simply impractical to analyse individually as it reduces them into smaller, homogeneous groupings. However, the compromise is some loss of sensitivity although this is usually more than compensated for by increased usability.
Factor analysis is widely used as input into other analysis – for example cluster analysis/market segmentation

Cluster Analysis

What isclusteranalysis?

Cluster analysis – also known as market segmentation – is a technique that is used to measure market composition

When would you use it?

To provide an alternative, more focused profile to what would be possible using basic socio-demographics, or other single-dimensional measures

What are the advantages?
It provides a classification that primarily describes the make-up of the market in attitudinal or behavioural terms
Any disadvantages?
While members of each cluster group share the same characteristics, each member is not all necessarily identical to every other member

Cluster analysis is often referred to as market segmentation. It is a technique that is used to help establish market composition by sub-dividing in into discrete groups (known as ‘clusters’).
While conventional ‘demographic’ analysis is based on tangible characteristics such as sex, age and social class, cluster analysis primarily relies on either subjective elements such as attitude, motivation, aspiration etc or on behavioural traits such as awareness, trial, weight of usership etc.
The rationale for cluster analysis is to sub-divide the sample into homogeneous groupings (i.e. clusters), each of whom share as many characteristics as possible with each other, while being as ‘different’ to everybody else as possible. This it does by looking at the response patterns and relationships between responses (for example from a large attitude battery such as TGI or series of factual responses based on awareness, trial and usership). In the interpretation of cluster analysis we should be aware that while everyone in the same cluster group shares the same broad traits and characteristics, they are not necessarily identical.
Cluster analysis allows us to identify the number and nature of different customer groupings within the market. By establishing the needs, requirements, opportunities and threats presented by each one we can ascertain their current and future [potential] worth to our business.

CHAID
What is CHAID?
CHAID stands for CHi-squared Automatic Interaction Detector. It is a technique that detects interaction between variables.
When would you use it?
It is usedto identify discrete groups of consumer and predict how their responses to somevariables affect other variables
What are the advantages?
Highly visual output, no equations.
Any disadvantages?
Needs large sample sizes to work effectively
CHAID detects interaction between variables in the data set. Using this technique we can establish relationships between a ‘dependent variable’ – for example readership of a certain newspaper – and other explanatory variables such as price, size, supplements etc.
CHAID does this by identifying discrete groups of respondents and, by taking their responses to explanatory variables, seeks to predict what the impact will be on the dependent variable.
CHAID is often used as an exploratory technique and is an alternative to multiple regression, especially when the data set is not well suited to regression analysis.
It is a highly visual means of data presentation that commonly takes the form of an organisation chart and does not entail any formulae or equations.
CHAID does not work well with small sample sizes as respondent groups can quickly become too small for reliable analysis



Source: http://www.icmresearch.co.uk/specialist_areas/qualitative.asp#research

Choices

Choice might not always be right. By voting down a proposal that seemed to have logic, compassion and the cultural consensus in favour of choice on its side, the House of Lords decided that it would not accept the right of the terminally ill to choose to die early.

PM and Brown sued for peace over the Turner pension plan that will enroll every British worker in a national pensions saving plan. You will have to opt out rather than opt in, which changes the nature of the choice.

Choice is becoming more contested and the ideologists are on the prowl. Economic libertarians see this as soft paternalism threatening fundamental liberties. Turner's crime is that he is setting up his preferred choice against the choice of individuals.
His proposal is a paternalist's sleight of hand and raise concerns. As every insurance salesman knows, once sold a saving plan we don't leave. When practised on a national scale by the state, it is a cunning extension of state power. In rational times the argument would have been that the right action for the state is to let people suffer the pain of their choices alongside the rewards of their pleasures.

But, suddenly, the argument has less resonance today. Turner is winning in a way impossible even five years ago. There is a growing awareness that we are myopic in the way we make choices and that the abundance of choice that affluence brings is making us unhappy. Wanting easy and fast have spoiled our sense of wise selection. People appear incapable of making choices for their own best interests as economist presume and wealth makes the consequences worse. The prevalence is more choices with less effort.

In The Challenge of Affluence, Offer argues that economists are wrong in the way they think about choice. The Oxford economic historian marshals an extraordinary array of evidence to demonstrate that the instinct of human beings is to want instant gratification: whether from physical activities, food, gambling or spending rather than saving, the human animal consistently underestimates the future costs of what he or she is doing in the here and now.

This is hardly news, except to economists who believe human beings rationally calibrate the costs and benefits of any action over time. The question for all societies is how to solve this individual tendency to self-destruct, preventing irrational, easy and more readily accessible choices and the answer has generally been to create incentives for self-control. Some are social, such as the stigma that used to be associated with deserting your family; some are regulatory, like controls on gambling. Society needs to encourage rational choices and educate individuals to limit bad choices.

What makes Offer's thesis original is that he argues that affluence makes self-control even harder and the capacity for individual self-destruction even greater.
In vain, economists try to explain this crisis as the result of a collectively rational choice. It is obvious to all but the most obtuse that it is the result of collective myopia; moreover, affluence is making the crisis worse. There is however a ray of hope. Smokers were in the same situation as today's over-eaters but have willingly submitted to greater and greater regulations. Other rational choices can also be publicized in the same fashion.

Markets have been offered products that are labeled more clearly so that consumers can make better-informed choices over what they buy. To go further, we may need some of what is called 'soft paternalism'. One of Offer's findings is that women may be better at self-control than men and more aware of the consequences of their actions. Any parent comparing their son's approach to studying for GCSEs against a daughter's will know what Offer means. Many more women than men are now going on to higher education; like obesity, this is threatening to become an epidemic.

For the past 20 years, the story has been that nothing must obstruct choice. We still want to choose, but we need safeguards against our own blindness and mistakes, even when the case seems irrefutable. Human qualities such as will power and self control have been appraised. We need many more wise choices. Our culture is now subtly changing.


Source: The Guardian, May 14

NEEDS ASSESSMENTS

There are a number of names for finding out information about needs. They include Community Analysis, PRA participatory Rural Appraisal; RRA – Rapid Rural Appraisal. Perhaps the most important characteristics of these methods are:
• the people whose needs you are studying participate in the process. They collect information you know you want, but also add things you never thought of. For example, in one PRA concerned with women and health, the mothers said they wanted help persuading their husbands to wait before arranging marriages for their daughters – the girls were being married off too young. This was a valid concern, linked to reproductive health, and worth following up.
• you involve colleagues of different but relevant disciplines. So if you are looking at income generation, you might want colleagues who know about agriculture, animal husbandry or fishing, or micro-industries.

The approach and many of the techniques are equally useful in urban or peri-urban (around the towns) areas as well as rural areas.


Information you might need could include:

• The numbers, age and sex distribution of the beneficiaries; their occupations and income; number, age and gender of family/dependents; housing: where they live (e.g. in remote locations, among the main population, in shanty towns or refugee camps) and whether housing adequate/inadequate; main sources of food and water.

• Total family budget and amounts going out for rent, food, water, schooling, health care. How was their condition before, were they better off, experienced natural or human made disaster. This will help to understand capacities and general mood (in trauma, depressed or hopeful) of the target groups.

• Physical problems, illnesses, risk behaviour; use of alcohol, drugs, unprotected sex.
For women: age at marriage, history of pregnancies and birth risk factors, contraceptive use.

• People and occupations: absent men? Incomers? Enough jobs? Underemployment? Access to credit for creating work? Dangerous or unhealthy occupations? Small industries? Resources used in the best way? Workloads through the year, through the day, for women/men? In rural areas: crops? Animal husbandry? Fishing? Crafts?

• Children: nutrition? Vaccinations? Spacing between babies? General care? Genital mutilation? Chances for school? Differences between boys/girls? Choices for teenagers? Age of first marriage/pregnancy? Male/female power within marriage? What does it mean to be a man/a woman?

* What are the problems for our beneficiaries? What do normal people have that they don’t have? What do they need that normal people don’t need? What do they see as most important? Where do they want the money spent? How do they see themselves – as in control of their own lives, as victims, or somewhere in between?

*** Try only to collect information you will make use of, for this project
or another in the future. When people give you information they also give you
time and confidences – and that must be respected. ***


Ensuring a Good Needs Assessment:

Good Needs Assessments are not easy, but not impossible. Get all the help you can.
Find an NGO or similar who can give you advice. Look for “Participatory Evaluation”.

You need to be able to form a team of one or two if you are working locally, or about five if you go off to do a PRA. In this case some of the team members may be advisory rather than active. The members, between them, must have the following skills:

• At least two must be able to talk easily with the beneficiaries, people oriented to make people at ease for telling, be committed to humanitarian causes, impartiality, looking for causes of problems, strong intuition, not to impose his/her stereotyped interpretations, understand their lives and at least one must be female if you are talking to women. If the beneficiaries talk different languages there must be people to translate. If you will be talking to women about personal things you need women translators.

• Someone in the team must understand figures – not a qualified statistician but someone who can work out percentages and compare one to another, who understands “more” and “less”, “seriously more” and “seriously less”.

• Someone must be able to put a questionnaire together to get the information you need – and be able to train the rest of the group to use it.

If you do a PRA in a village, then because of distances you may have to go and stay there, you will need at least five working days, so you will have to find a way of staying six nights, perhaps camping. Don’t expect the community to feed you – they are probably less well off than you. Don’t become a burden on people providing services for you that they lack themselves. Humanitarian workers sometimes expect privileged environment. If the beneficiaries live nearby, the team could free up one afternoon a week, for two months. You can find out a lot in eight half-days.


What can your team of NGO joined with beneficiaries do?

Most groups of beneficiaries, except babies, even small children, can discuss problems and needs if approached by right attitude, not pitiful, respectful and friendly. The more active groups, even those who cannot read or write, can get their neighbours talking, bring groups together, count, map, tally, do simple measurements, make timetables of activities, work out incomes and family resources, tell their own story, listen to the stories of others and spot patterns. You might be looking at the needs of children over seven or people with special needs (previously called the mentally handicapped). If you speak to them with respect, give them time, and ask them about the kind of help or care they would like to have, then they will have an opinion worth listening to.

— you can use a questionnaire.
For collecting simple facts a questionnaire is the most useful way. If you make a questionnaire, practice using it first, to make sure that is clear and takes no longer than half an hour to fill in. If you translate it, get someone else to translate it back, so that there are no mistakes. Do not have any difficult questions in your first questionnaire. Check that you would like to answer the questions yourself – if you want to ask me “Have you ever had a sexually-transmitted disease?” then you better do it with great sensitivity or I will kick you out!

EXERCISE:
How would you ask this question to whoever is sitting next to you?

— you can hold Focus Group Discussions.
You have a question: perhaps, “how are small children cared for?” Or “what are the practices here around pregnancy and child-birth?” Then the people who know – in these cases, women – are asked to come and join in the discussion. Groups of about eight people are best. Other examples of Focus Groups producing important information are: street children talking about the risks in their lives; elderly women recalling good feeding practices for small children; small-business women pooling experiences of the risks of business.


— you can do a Sickness Survey if you must (but this is difficult, so get advice).
You are studying the beneficiary group and you want to know what sicknesses they have experienced in a defined period. The information will not be very useful unless it is fairly accurate. You could give them paper and pencil and ask them to keep a list. But this only works with an educated and motivated group. You can ask them to recall their sicknesses over the last year, but most episodes will be forgotten. On the whole, recall is only successful over the previous two weeks. This is important when it comes to recording seasonal illness. If the malaria season was three months ago, malaria will be under-reported. But you can ask about sickness over the last two weeks. And you need to be very persistent and specific: “Now let’s talk about your second child – think about the day before – are you sure? – what were the symptoms? – so none of them had diarrhoea? etc”. And you can return every few months. It takes a lot of time and you might do better talking to the health workers in the area.

If you are talking to the elderly or disabled, you would probably be concerned not only about physical symptoms but about mental/emotional symptoms like depression or anger.

— you can bring in non-NGO people from different disciplines, perhaps agriculture, lawyer, economist. Then these experts, the NGO people, and community members with their different informal skills can form themselves into smaller teams. Team membership can change during the week so that everybody bounces ideas off each other. They can do the following:

• Make maps of the area and its resources, including houses, pumps, roads etc. These maps can be made on the ground using sticks and stones. Distances can be measured using pacing.

• Find out about Workloads: the daily burden of work of both men and women. (Report from one village: “the women work much longer hours than the men, mainly in the fields. The men do the same work in the fields but as it is men that do it, it is more important so more tiring”).

• Take Key measurements: for example, the nutritional status of small children under five using Upper Arm Circumference Bands. A group of women are shown how to do this then they do it in pairs. If the pair have different measurements, the expert double-checks.

Moderate malnutrition is an example of a problem that is not noticed by the community. Usually it is invisible. By measuring and discovering it, the problem becomes visible to mothers.

— you can look for the different kinds of truths, knowing that different people will tell them in various ways depending on the situation.
The village chief will paint the picture he wants officials to accept. Women’s replies to questions can be more varied and accurate than their husbands’, because they do not know the “correct“ answer. Some issues are not for public consumption. They must be brought up in private. So if you need this information, your job is to get through the layers of correct, public or political truths. You need to have done your homework. You must know the type of truths that people would not easily discuss.

EXAMPLE:
In an assessment of a project building latrines in East Africa, it was difficult to find out why some houses were not participating. Only by organising small focus group discussions, and by taking the time to talk about every missed household, did it emerge that each of these families were being badly affected by the amount the earners were spending on alcohol.




INDICATORS FOR EFFECTIVE WATER AND SANITATION PLUS HYGIENE EDUCATION

Developing aims and indicators for water projects show that a water project should have two initial aims:

• People should use the water properly, hygienically, so that there would be a good effect on the health of the family (PROPER, HYGIENIC USE); and

• People should create a structure so that the water points would continue in use (SUSTAINABILITY).

The indicators have been adapted for projects that include water, latrines and hygiene education. These targets should be agreed on or adapted with the community at the start of the project and then monitored. Many questions are geared to women because mostly they are the ones who collect water, care for small children, cook etc.


INDICATORS FOR PROPER, HYGIENIC USE
These are used both at the start of the project and during it, and if all is going well, the number of “yes” answers should increase. (Check that the indicators are measurable, relevant and achievable).

— Is soap affordable?
— Is soap purchased increasingly during the project by households?

— Is water quality maintained from the source to mouth?

Look first at the water point:
— Is the site routinely kept clean?
— Are unprotected wells or ponds chlorinated regularly (specify how)?;
— Are containers chlorinated regularly (specify how)?
— Are containers clean when they are dipped into the well or pond?
— Is the water kept clean during collection and transport?;

Then look at home hygiene in the kitchen:
— Can water be contaminated in the kitchen?;
— Are cups etc washed, dried and stored cleanly?;
— Is there soap or ash and water near the kitchen for hand-washing?
— Are hands washed before cooking?
— Are animals kept out of the kitchen?

Then look at home hygiene with small children:
— Is contaminated water boiled when children are sick?
— Can mothers make and use a rehydration drink or ORS?
— Are the faeces of children cleared up?
— Are babies well washed?
— Do mothers wash their hands after dealing with faeces?

Then look at personal hygiene:
— Are there private washing places for women?
— Is enough water used in the household for washing?
— Are washing-related illnesses getting less – skin infections, scabies?
— Do people say that they feel cleaner?

Then look at improved latrine use:
— Are there enough latrines and are they close to the houses?
— Are people free to use latrines (no taboos)?
— Are latrines clean and free from smells?
— Is there a system to wash hands after latrine use?


INDICATORS FOR SUSTAINABILITY

— ARE THERE CONFIDENT/COMPETENT VILLAGE ACTORS?

— Is there a Water & Sanitation Committee?
— Are most of the committee members the people who do the committee work?
— Is there at least one woman in the committee?
— Do women members say what they think in meetings?

— Has there been meetings with community members including the women?
— Have some of these meetings led to action?

— Do women in the community know what is going on?
— Have the women participated in activities?

— Do the women say that they can do something about diarrhoea in small children?

Do not ask general questions. Ask specifically:
"This morning, where and how did you shit, wash, etc?"
"What did you do yesterday to keep everything clean?”
"When was the last time your kid got diarrhoea? What did you do?"